| Risk Assessment of Vertical Breakwaters -A Case Study in Turkey |
| |
| 作者姓名： | CanElmarBALAS LeventKOC |
| |
| 作者单位： | Civil Engineering Department，Faculty of Engineering and Architecture，Gazi University，Civil Engineering Department，Faculty of Engineering and Architecture，Gazi University 06570 Ankara，Turkey，06570 Ankara，Turkey |
| |
| 摘 要： | In the reliability-risk assessment, the second order reliability index (βⅡ ) method and the Conditional Expectation Monte Carlo (CEMC) simulation are interrelated as a new Level Ⅲ approach for the analysis of the safety level of the Dalaman yacht harbor vertical wall breakwater in Turkey. The missing wave data of the Dalaman measurement station are hindcasted by use of multi-layer feed-forward neural networks with the steepest descent and conjugate gradient algorithms. The structural failure probabilities of sliding and overturning failure modes are forecasted by approximation of the failure sur-face with a second-degree polynomial of an equal curvature at the design point. in the new approach, for each randomly generated load and tide combination, the joint failure probability reflects both the occurrence probability of loading condition and the structural failure risk at the limit state. The approach can be applied to risk assessment of vertical breakwaters in short CPU durations of portable comput
|
Risk Assessment of Vertical Breakwaters -- A Case Study in Turkey |
| |
| CanElmarBALAS,LeventKOC.Risk Assessment of Vertical Breakwaters -A Case Study in Turkey[J].China Ocean Engineering,2002,16(1):123-134. |
| |
| Authors: | Can Elmar BALAS Levent KOC |
| |
| Institution: | Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Cazi University, 06570 Ardkara , Turkey Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Cazi University, 06570 Ardkara , Turkey |
| |
| Abstract: | In the reliability-risk assessment, the second order reliability index (βⅡ) method and the Conditional ExpectationMonte Carlo (CEMC) simulation are interrelated as a new Level Ⅲ approach for the analysis of the safety level of theDalaman yacht harbor vertical wall breakwater in Turkey. The missing wave data of the Dalaman measurement station arehindcasted by use of muhi-layer feed-forward neural networks with the steepest descent and conjugate gradient algorithms.The structural failure probabilities of sliding and overturning failure modes are forecasted by approximation of the failure sur-face with a second-degree polynomial of an equal curvature at the design point. In the new approach, for each randomlygenerated load and tide combination, the joint failure probability reflects both the occurrence probability of loading conditionand the structural failure risk at the limit state. The approach can be applied to risk assessment of vertical breakwaters inshort CPU durations of portable computers. |
| |
| Keywords: | vertieal breakwater simulation stability neural network reliability |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《中国海洋工程》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《中国海洋工程》下载免费的PDF全文 |
