| 基于粗糙集与犹豫层次分析的北极东北航道风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 王哲,葛珊珊,张韧,钱龙霞,杨孟倩,徐淦.基于粗糙集与犹豫层次分析的北极东北航道风险评估[J].海洋通报,2017,36(5):512-520. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王哲 葛珊珊 张韧 钱龙霞 杨孟倩 徐淦 |
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| 作者单位： | 国防科技大学气象海洋学院，江苏南京211101,国防科技大学气象海洋学院，江苏南京211101,国防科技大学气象海洋学院，江苏南京211101；南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心，江苏南京210044,国防科技大学气象海洋学院，江苏南京211101,国防科技大学气象海洋学院，江苏南京211101,东海舰队水文气象中心，浙江宁波315000 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用风险分析理论和方法,以北极东北航道6个关键海峡为研究目标,构建东北航道自然环境风险评价指标体系;针对全球气候变暖以及海冰融化背景下北极东北航道航行安全问题,引入犹豫层次分析方法确定指标主观权重、采用粗糙集思想来确定客观权重,集成得到组合权重。基于所建风险分析模型,对其中3个关键海峡的自然环境风险进行了量化评估和时空特征分析,同时计算了2013年8月份6个关键海峡的风险度,模拟了一条最优通航线路并与同时期永盛号轮船的实际航行线路进行了比对。研究表明:(1)2000-2014年东北航道3个关键海峡自然环境风险均呈现减小趋势,红军海峡自然环境风险减小趋势最大;(2)对比3个海峡海峡自然环境风险度,德朗海峡最低,维利基茨基海峡次之,二者均适合通航;红军海峡风险度最高,且不适宜通航;(3)模型模拟路线与实际航线较吻合,对实时航行路线的选择有参考意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 犹豫层次分析法 粗糙集理论 组合权重 东北航道 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011/7/1 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016/8/29 0:00:00 |
Risk assessment of the Northeast Passage of Arctic based on Rough set
theory and Hesitate Analytic Hierarchy Process |
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| Abstract: | Using risk analysis theory and method, taking the six key straits of Arctic Northeast Passage as research targets, risk assessment system was constructed; Introduced H-AHP to determine the index of subjective weight, and the Rough set theory to determine the objective weights, integrated the two to obtain the combining weights. Using the combination of weights, quantitative assessment of the risks of natural disasters of crucial straits, temporal and spatial analysis of characteristics of the Northeast Passage natural environmental risks were develpoed, an optimum route was simulated and compared with the sailing line of Insein in the same period The results show: (1) From 2000 to 2014, three key straits'' natural environmental risks showed a decreasing trend, the largest is the Red Army Strait; (2) Comparison of different Strait risk indicate that the De Long Strait is at the lowest risk, followed by theVilkitsky Strait Both of the two straits are Suitable for navigation. The Red Army Strait is at the highest risk, and not suitable for navigation. (3) The simulation route agrees well with the actual route, providing reference for choices of the actual route. |
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| Keywords: | Hesitation Analytic Hierarchy Process Rough Set theory combining weights Northeast Passage |
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