| 全球变暖背景下南海动力海平面变化 |
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| 引用本文： | 张湛奇,陈长霖.全球变暖背景下南海动力海平面变化[J].海洋通报,2023(3):241-249. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张湛奇 陈长霖 |
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| 作者单位： | 复旦大学 大气与海洋科学系，上海 200438 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金（42076018) |
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| 摘 要： | 由于分辨率不足等原因，当前大部分全球耦合气候模式对南海等海洋区域的模拟能力仍然较低。本文基于超高分辨率（Ultra high-resolution） CESM-UHR耦合模式（大气和海洋水平分辨率分别达到约25 km和约10 km）研究了南海动力海平面对全球变暖的响应。研究发现：（1） CESM-UHR能够较好地模拟出南海冬、夏季节性动力海面高度和表层环流变化；（2）在四倍二氧化碳试验下，冬季南海动力海平面变化呈现出中部低、近岸高的分布特征；夏季则呈现出西北部低、东南部高的分布特征，分别对应冬、夏表层地转流增强趋势；（3）冬、夏动力海平面变化特征与风应力旋度变化具有很好的对应关系；（4）全球变暖下南海海平面变化存在季节循环放大效应，这将增大南海极端水位灾害风险。
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| 关 键 词： | 高分辨率模式 南海 动力海平面 季节循环 全球变暖 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022/10/14 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2023/1/19 0:00:00 |
Dynamic sea level change in the South China Sea under global warming |
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| ZHANG Zhanqi,CHEN Changlin.Dynamic sea level change in the South China Sea under global warming[J].Marine Science Bulletin,2023(3):241-249. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Zhanqi CHEN Changlin |
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| Institution: | Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Fudan University,Shanghai 200438, China |
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| Abstract: | Detecting long-term change of regional ocean dynamic in the marginal seas has been severely hampered by the current low-resolution of climate models. Here we study the dynamic sea level (DSL) response to global warming in the South China Sea based on the ultra-high-resolution coupled model CESM-UHR, which has a nominal 25?km horizontal atmosphere and 10?km horizontal ocean. The results show that (1) CESM-UHR can well reproduce the seasonal variation of DSL and surface circulation in the South China Sea. (2) Under the quadrupling CO2 experiment, the change of DSL is smaller in the central basin and larger on the continental shelf in winter, and smaller in the northwest and larger to the southeast in summer, indicating an intensification of the upper layer current in both seasons. (3) The DSL change is caused by the strengthening of wind stress curl. (4) Global warming can amplify the seasonal cycle of sea level change in the South China Sea, which could increase the potential risk of extreme water level. |
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| Keywords: | high resolution model South China Sea dynamic sea level seasonal cycle global warming |
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