| 全球大洋潮汐模式在北印度洋潮汐预报准确性的评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘经东,张文静,刘春笑,郑后俊,朱首贤,史剑,聂屿.全球大洋潮汐模式在北印度洋潮汐预报准确性的评估[J].海洋通报,2019(2):159-166. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘经东 张文静 刘春笑 郑后俊 朱首贤 史剑 聂屿 |
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| 作者单位： | 国防科技大学 气象海洋学院，江苏 南京 211101,国防科技大学 气象海洋学院，江苏 南京 211101,军委联合参谋部战场环境体系论证中心，北京 100088,河海大学 海洋学院，江苏 南京 210098,河海大学 海洋学院，江苏 南京 210098,国防科技大学 气象海洋学院，江苏 南京 211101,国防科技大学 气象海洋学院，江苏 南京 211101 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金 （41376012；41076048） |
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| 摘 要： | 为评估DTU10、TPXO8、GOT00.2和NAO.99b 4个全球大洋潮汐模式对北印度洋潮汐的预报能力,采用英国海洋资料中心提供的海区中部和沿岸站潮汐调和常数资料,检验了这些模式4个主要分潮(M_2、S_2、K_1、O_1)的准确度。它们的各分潮调和常数资料准确度都比较高,振幅绝均差的最大值仅5.61 cm,迟角绝均差的最大值仅9.13°。这些模式的调和常数给出潮波传播特征差别不大。基于这些模式提供的调和常数,分别建立了北印度洋4、8和16分潮潮汐预报模型,将预报结果与中国海事服务网提供的沿岸24个站潮汐表资料进行对比。各模式的8分潮(M_2、S_2、N_2、K_2、K_1、O_1、P_1、Q_1)潮汐预报模型均优于4分潮(M_2、S_2、K_1、O_1)潮汐预报模型,NAO.99b模式可以提供16分潮(M_2、S_2、N_2、K_2、K_1、O_1、P_1、Q_1、MU_2、NU_2、T_2、L_2、2N_2、J_1、M1、OO_1)潮汐预报模型,但是对预报结果改善不明显;在各模式中,GOT00.2模式的8分潮潮汐预报模型对北印度洋沿岸的预报效果最好,平均绝均差为14.97 cm。
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| 关 键 词： | 北印度洋 大洋潮汐模式 潮汐调和常数 潮汐预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/3/21 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/9/25 0:00:00 |
An assessment of tidal prediction by global ocean tide models in the North Indian Ocean |
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| YUAN Nan,CHEN Xin-ping,CHEN Xue-en,CHEN Jin-rui,LI Wen-shan and WANG Hui.An assessment of tidal prediction by global ocean tide models in the North Indian Ocean[J].Marine Science Bulletin,2019(2):159-166. |
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| Authors: | YUAN Nan CHEN Xin-ping CHEN Xue-en CHEN Jin-rui LI Wen-shan and WANG Hui |
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| Institution: | College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense and Technology, Nanjing 211101, China,College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense and Technology, Nanjing 211101, China,Demonstration Center for Battlefield Environment System, Joint Staff of the Central Military Commission, Beijing 100088, China,College of Harbor, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hobai University, Nanjing 210098, China,College of Harbor, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hobai University, Nanjing 210098, China,College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense and Technology, Nanjing 211101, China and College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense and Technology, Nanjing 211101, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to assess the tide prediction by four global ocean tide models (DTU10, TPXO8, GOT00.2 and NAO.99b) in the North Indian Ocean, their harmonic constants of four main tide constituents (M2, S2, K1 and O1) at the central sea areas and coasts are tested using data from the British Ocean Data Center (BODC) . These models all have small errors of harmonic constants, and the largest values of average absolute error (AAE) are 5.61 cm for amplitude and 9.13? for phase lag. The difference on tidal propagation characteristics revealing by harmonic constants from different models are small. Using the four, eight, or sixteen tide harmonic constants from these models respectively, some tide predictions models are set up, and they are tested by the tide tables from China National Seamen Service. The tide prediction models with eight tide harmonic constants (of M2, S2, N2, K2, K1, O1, P1 and Q1 tide constituents) are all better than those with four tide harmonic constants (of M2, S2, K1 and O1 tide constituents) . The NAO.99b can be used to establish the tide prediction model with sixteen tide.harmonic constants (of M2, S2, N2, K2, K1, O1, P1, Q1, MU2, NU2, T2, L2, 2N2, J1, M1 and OO1 tide constituents) , which makes quite small difference of tide prediction with that using eight tide harmonic constants. In the all tide prediction models, the one with eight tide harmonic constants has the least error of tide prediction at the coasts of the North Indian Ocean.Its average value of AAE is 14.97 cm. |
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| Keywords: | North Indian Ocean ocean tide model tidal harmonic constant tide prediction |
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