| 中国海洋经济动力因素与海洋经济增长的关系研究--基于PVAR脉冲与GIS技术的分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 杜军,寇佳丽,赵培阳.中国海洋经济动力因素与海洋经济增长的关系研究--基于PVAR脉冲与GIS技术的分析[J].海洋通报,2020,39(1):40-51. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杜军 寇佳丽 赵培阳 |
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| 作者单位： | 广东海洋大学 管理学院,广东 湛江 524088;广东沿海经济带发展研究院,广东 湛江 524088;广东海洋大学 管理学院,广东 湛江 524088 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省哲学社会科学“十三五”规划 2016年度项目 （GD16XYJ07）；广东海洋大学创新强校工程项目 （重大科研项目培育计划）（GDOU2017052613） |
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| 摘 要： | 为实现海洋经济高质量发展,明晰中国海洋经济动力因素与海洋经济增长之间的关系及其空间特征,本文从技术、资本和劳动力三方面出发,引入PVAR模型与GIS技术,分析2005-2015年度我国沿海省市海洋经济动力因素与海洋经济空间响应格局分布。结果表明:整体上,全国涉海就业率与技术进步短期内无法满足海洋经济发展的需要,从长期来看,涉海就业率的增加、海洋科技成果转换与海洋资本存量的逐渐增多,对海洋经济具有促进作用,但后劲不足;从部分来看,受海洋技术进步、海洋劳动投入正向影响作用的地区多集中于环渤海地区与长三角地区,海洋资本存量影响较大地区多集中于除河北外的环渤海地区,部分沿海省份海洋经济产值与海洋经济发展水平不同步,对海洋技术、海洋劳动、海洋资本的需求日益增加;各沿海省份三大海洋经济动力因素发展均不协调。
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| 关 键 词： | 海洋经济增长 PVAR模型 动力因素 GIS |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/6/4 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/8/19 0:00:00 |
Research on the relationship between China′s marine economic dynamics and marine economic growth:an empirical study based on PVAR pulse and GIS technology |
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| DU Jun,KOU Jia-li and ZHAO Pei-yang.Research on the relationship between China′s marine economic dynamics and marine economic growth:an empirical study based on PVAR pulse and GIS technology[J].Marine Science Bulletin,2020,39(1):40-51. |
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| Authors: | DU Jun KOU Jia-li and ZHAO Pei-yang |
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| Institution: | Management School of Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088, China; Guangdong Coastal Economic Belt Development Research Institute, Zhanjiang 524088, China,Management School of Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088, China and Management School of Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to realize the high-quality development of the marine economy, to clarify the relationship between China''s marine economic dynamics and marine economic growth and its spatial characteristics, the PVAR model and GIS technology are introduced from the aspects of technology, capital and labor. The marine economic dynamic factors and the spatial distribution pattern of marine economy in China''s coastal provinces from 2005 to 2015 are analyzed. The results show that the national sea-related employment and technological progress cannot meet the needs of the development of the marine economy in the short term. In the long run, the increase in the sea-related employment rate, the transformation of marine science and technology, and the increasing stock of marine capital will promote the marine economy, but the stamina is insufficient. From a partial point of view, the positive impacts of marine technology advancement and marine labor input are concentrated in the Bohai Rim region and the Yangtze River Delta region. The areas with large impact on the stock of marine capital are concentrated in the Bohai Rim region but Hebei province. The marine economic output value of some coastal provinces is not synchronized with the level of marine economic development. The demand for marine technology, marine labor and marine capital is increasing. The development of the three major marine economic drivers in coastal provinces is not coordinated |
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| Keywords: | marine economic growth PVAR model dynamic factor GIS |
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