| 基于贝叶斯网络的海洋生态环境状况评价——以山东省为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨湘艳,余静.基于贝叶斯网络的海洋生态环境状况评价——以山东省为例[J].海洋通报,2021(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨湘艳 余静 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国海洋大学 海洋与大气学院，山东 青岛 266100;中国海洋大学 海洋与大气学院，山东 青岛 266100；中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院，山东 青岛 266100 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金联合基金项目 （U1706215） |
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| 摘 要： | 在海洋开发利用活动日益增多,海洋环境保护压力日益增大的背景下,进行海洋生态环境状况科学评价方法的研究可以为开展海洋生态环境监测评估与海洋生态环境保护政策制定提供科学依据,促进改善海洋生态环境状况。本文首先基于贝叶斯网络基本理论,构建了海洋生态环境状况贝叶斯网络评价模型;再以山东省为例,充分融合专家经验知识与客观数据,从定性与定量两个角度评价了2013—2019年山东省近海生态环境状况,分析了各评价指标间关系及其对近海生态环境状况的影响程度。评价结果表明2013—2019年山东省近海生态环境状况保持一般状态,海洋环境质量与海洋生态灾害类指标对评价结果影响最大,山东省海洋环境保护工作初见成效。研究结果表明该评价模型能有效评价海洋生态环境状况,分析结果对于环境保护政策制定具有一定的借鉴意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 海洋生态环境状况评价 贝叶斯网络 海洋环境保护政策 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021/2/21 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021/3/24 0:00:00 |
Assessment of marine ecological environment based on Bayesian Networks:a case study of Shandong Province |
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| YANG Xiangyan,YU Jing.Assessment of marine ecological environment based on Bayesian Networks:a case study of Shandong Province[J].Marine Science Bulletin,2021(4). |
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| Authors: | YANG Xiangyan YU Jing |
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| Institution: | College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China; College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China; Institute of Marine Development, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China |
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| Abstract: | The intensive marine development activities along with increasing pressure of marine environmental protection, requires the study on scientific assessment of marine ecological environment to provide sufficient basis for monitoring and evaluation of marine ecological environment and related policy-making. A Bayesian Network assessment model for marine ecological environment is established based on basic theory of Bayesian Network, and then a case study of Shandong Provinc is conducted. By fully integrating expert experience and knowledge with objective data, we assessed the status of marine ecological environment in Shandong offshore from 2013 to 2019 and analyzed the relationship between each indicator and indicator''s impact on ecological environment with the lens of quantitative and qualitative. The model implies that the marine ecological environmental status in Shandong offshore remain general from 2013 to 2019, and indicators of marine environmental quality and marine ecological disaster have the greatest impact on the evaluation results. Marine environmental protection of Shandong Province has achieved initial success. The results of our research shows that the assessment model we built can assess marine ecological environment effectively. The analysis of model results have a certain reference significance for environmental protection policy-making. |
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| Keywords: | assessment of marine ecological environments Bayesian Network marine environmental protection policy |
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