| 极值波高与历时联合分布的重现水平分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈子燊,位帅.极值波高与历时联合分布的重现水平分析[J].海洋通报,2020,39(5):530-535. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈子燊 位帅 |
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| 作者单位： | 中山大学新华学院,广东广州,510520;中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州510275;中山市水库水电工程管理中心,广东中山528400 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目 （41371498） |
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| 摘 要： | 使用美国北卡罗来纳州的 FRF 1985—2016 年的极值波高及其持续时间数据，采用最优的 Gumbel-Hougaard copula函数和 Kendall 分布函数构建极值波高和相应历时不同组合的联合概率分布模式，分析各个组合的遭遇概率、“或”重现期、“且”重现期和 Kendall 重现期，以出现最大可能概率的方法推算各组合联合设计值。结果表明：Kendall 重现期所对应的累积频率更准确地代表了特定设计频率下的风险率；重现期分别为 5 年、10 年、20 年、50 年、100 年、200 年推算的 Kendall重现期设计值介于“或”重现期和“且”重现期设计值之间，小于相应的边缘分布设计值；基于 Kendall 重现期的极值波高及其持续时间不同重现期组合推算的结果可为海洋工程构筑物设计与风险管理提供新的选择与参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 海洋工程构筑物风险评估 设计波高与相应历时 "或"重现期 "且"重现期 Kendall重现期 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/2/3 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/4/7 0:00:00 |
Return level analysis on joint distribution of extreme wave heights and durations |
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| CHEN Zishen,WEI Shuai.Return level analysis on joint distribution of extreme wave heights and durations[J].Marine Science Bulletin,2020,39(5):530-535. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Zishen WEI Shuai |
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| Institution: | Xinhua College of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510520, China; School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275, China; Reservoir and Hydropower Engineering Management Center of Zhongshan, Zhongshan, 528400, China |
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| Abstract: | Extreme wave heights and their duration data from 1985 to 2016 were used in Field of Research Facillity ,FRF)from north Carolina, USA. The optimal Gumbel-Hougaard copula and Kendall distribution function were used to construct the joint probability distribution model of different combinations of extreme wave height and corresponding duration. The probability of encounter, the ''OR'' return period, the ''AND'' return period and Kendall return period of each combination were analyzed to calculate the joint design value of each combination by the method of maximum probability. The results show that the cumulative frequency corresponding to Kendall return period more accurately represents the risk rate under the specific design frequency. The design values of Kendall return period calculated with return periods of 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, 50 years, 100 years and 200 years are between ''OR'' return period and ''AND'' return period, and less than the corresponding marginal distribution design values. Based on the combination of extreme wave height in Kendall return period and its duration in different return periods, the results can provide new options for the design reference and risk management of marine engineering structures. |
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| Keywords: | Risk assessment of marine engineering structures Design wave height and corresponding duration ''OR '' return periods ''AND '' return periods Kendall return periods |
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