| 热带气旋影响下上海港水位数值模拟和预报方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 秦曾灏,端义宏.热带气旋影响下上海港水位数值模拟和预报方法研究[J].海洋湖沼通报,1994(2):41-47. |
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| 作者姓名： | 秦曾灏 端义宏 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海台风研究所!200030上海 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于二维台风风暴潮动力－数值模式和二维天文潮动力－数值模式，本文提出了一个包含天文潮和风暴潮非线性相互作用的综合水位数值模拟和数值预报方法。该方法经对１９５１－１９８６年间对上海港影响较大的８场台风期间的综合水位进行数值模拟，结果令人满意。运用该方法对９０１５号台风期间的上海港综合水位的试报和后报结果比较表明，水位误差主要来自台风路径和强度的预报而不是水位预报方法本身。所提出的适用于上海港水位数值
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| 关 键 词： | 风暴潮 水位 数值模拟 热带气旋 |
STUDY ON THE NUMERICAL SIMULATIOM AND PREDICTION METHODS FOR WATER LEVEL OF SHANGHAI HARBOUR |
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| Qin Zenghao ,Duan Yihong.STUDY ON THE NUMERICAL SIMULATIOM AND PREDICTION METHODS FOR WATER LEVEL OF SHANGHAI HARBOUR[J].Transaction of Oceanology and Limnology,1994(2):41-47. |
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| Authors: | Qin Zenghao Duan Yihong |
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| Abstract: | Based on the two-dimensional storm surge and astronomical tide dynamic models, a numerical water level simulation/prediction method incorporating nonlinear interaction between tide and surge has been developed in this paper. The method has been successfully applied to the numerical water level simulations in Shanghai harbour during eight historical tropical cyclones (TC) affecting the harbour seriously from 1951 to 1986.Comparison between the results of the tentative forecast and hindcast of the water level in Shanghai during TC 9015 showed that the water level errors were mainly caused by the inaccurate predictions of the tracks and intensities of the tropical cyclones, not by the proposed method itself. |
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| Keywords: | Strom surge Astronomical tide Water level Nonlinear interaction between astronomical tide and strom surge Numerical simulation Numericae Prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
