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| 集合成员个数对集合预报技巧影响的试验分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 于连兵,郝彦斌,张德宇,张立凤,张立军.集合成员个数对集合预报技巧影响的试验分析[J].海洋湖沼通报,2007(Z1). |
| 作者姓名： | 于连兵 郝彦斌 张德宇 张立凤 张立军 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 95809部队气象台,河北,沧州,061036 2. 北海舰队气象水文中心,青岛,266003 3. 解放军理工大学气象学院,南京,211101 4. 解放军总参气象水文中心,北京,100081 |
| 摘 要： | 利用全球中期预报模式T63L9,选取2004年6月4日至13日10d作为试验个例进行了集合预报试验,分析了不同集合成员个数对于预报结果的影响。结果表明,集合预报的技巧都明显高于单个控制预报。在集合成员较少时,随集合成员教的增加,集合预报的技巧提高明显,当集合成员数多于11个时,集合预报的效果提高缓慢。在中期预报时段内。集合成员数11为集合预报效果随集合成员教趋于饱和的临界值,如果继续增加成员数.预报效果提高较少,但计算量却大大的增加。本文只是单个试验个例的分析结果。为验证结论的普适性,还需要进行更多的试验。 |
| 关 键 词： | 集合预报 T63L9 均方根误差 距平相关系数 |
THE INFLUENCE OF THE NUMBERS OF THE MEMBERS ON THE PREDICTION SKILL OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST |
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| YU Lianbing,HAO Yanbin,ZHANG Deyu,ZHANG Lifeng,ZHANG Lijun.THE INFLUENCE OF THE NUMBERS OF THE MEMBERS ON THE PREDICTION SKILL OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST[J].Transaction of Oceanology and Limnology,2007(Z1). | |
| Authors: | YU Lianbing HAO Yanbin ZHANG Deyu ZHANG Lifeng ZHANG Lijun |
| Abstract: | The use of global medium-term forecasting model T63L9,ten days of June 4,2004 to 13 as a test case of the ensemble prediction test,analysis of a number of members of dif- ferent sets for forecasting is carried out.The results indicate that ensemble skills are signifi- cantly better than forecast individual control.Set in fewer members,with a few members of the pool,ensemble skills improve significantly,when the set number of members more than 11,the ensemble effect is improved slowly.In the medium-term forecast period,set the number of members of the ensemble forecasting 11,the results tend to the threshold satura- tion,if the number of members continued to increase,forecasting results raise less,but the cost is increased substantially.In this paper it is just a single example of the test,to verify the universal conclusion,more tests are needed. |
| Keywords: | ensemble prediction T63L9 RMSE ACC |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |