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| 近22年来象山港海域水环境变化趋势及R/S预测研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 张丽旭,赵敏,付旭强,蔡燕红.近22年来象山港海域水环境变化趋势及R/S预测研究[J].海洋湖沼通报,2010(1). |
| 作者姓名： | 张丽旭 赵敏 付旭强 蔡燕红 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 国家海洋局东海环境监测中心,上海,200137 2. 上海师范大学,上海,200234 3. 河南省禹州市环境保护局,河南,禹州,461670 4. 宁波海洋环境监测中心站,浙江,宁波,315040 |
| 基金项目： | 上海市教育委员会重点学科项目(J50402)资助 |
| 摘 要： | 选择CODMn、DIN、PO4-P作为反映象山港海域水环境状况的主要环境参数,建立22 a来(1984—2005)象山港海域CODMn、DIN和PO4-P年平均浓度的时间序列,用平均差值法、最小二乘法和自回归滑动平均法3种趋势分析方法,统计检验了其变化趋势,并用重标极差分析法(R/S分析法),预测了在当前情景下象山港海域未来各项水环境参数的变化趋势特征。结果表明:近22 a来象山港海域CODMn年平均浓度则呈降低的趋势,而DIN和PO4-P的年平均浓度则呈增加的趋势,CODMn降低比DIN和PO4-P增加更明显;根据R/S预测分析,未来象山港海域CODMn的降低趋势可能会出现逆转,呈现升高的趋势,而DIN和PO4-P可能仍将保持逐渐升高的趋势,N:P比值将会进一步扩大,N和P的比例失调状况会进一步加剧。 |
| 关 键 词： | 象山港 水环境变化 趋势检验 R/S预测 |
THE VARIATION TREND OF SEAWATER ENVIRONMENT OF XIANGSHAN HARBOR AND STUDY OF THEIR R/S FORECASTING IN RECENT 22 YEARS |
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| ZHANG Lixu,ZHAO Min,FU Xuqiang,CAI Yanhong.THE VARIATION TREND OF SEAWATER ENVIRONMENT OF XIANGSHAN HARBOR AND STUDY OF THEIR R/S FORECASTING IN RECENT 22 YEARS[J].Transaction of Oceanology and Limnology,2010(1). | |
| Authors: | ZHANG Lixu ZHAO Min FU Xuqiang CAI Yanhong |
| Institution: | 1.East China Sea Monitoring Center;State Oceanic Administration;Shanghai 200137;China;2.Shanghai Normal University;Shanghai;200234;3.Yuzhou City Environment protection Administration;Yuzhou 461670;4.Ningbo Sea Environment Monitoring Center;Ningbo 315040;China |
| Abstract: | In the paper,CODMn,DIN,and PO4-P were selected as main parameters reflecting water environment in Xiangshan Harbor.Time sequence of annual mean CODMn,DIN,and PO4-P was established in recent 22 years.The long-term variation trend of them was tested by using three statistical methods which conclude the average difference method,the least square method,and self-regression slope AR(1) process.The characteristic of variation trend about all water environmental parameters of Xiangshan Harbor in the future was for... |
| Keywords: | Xiangshan Harbor variation of water environment trend testing R/S forecasting |
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