| 日本鲐对马群系资源丰度预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 薛艳会,陈新军,汪金涛.日本鲐对马群系资源丰度预测研究[J].海洋技术,2020,39(1):77-83. |
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| 作者姓名： | 薛艳会 陈新军 汪金涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海海洋大学海洋科学学院,上海 201306;上海海洋大学海洋科学学院,上海 201306;农业部大洋渔业开发重点实验室,上海 201306;国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心,上海 201306;大洋渔业资源可持续开发教育部重点实验室,上海 201306;农业部大洋渔业资源环境科学观测实验站,上海 201306 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1973-2016年日本西海水产研究所提供的日本鲐(Scomber Japanicus)对马群系的资源量与渔获量数据,结合产卵场1(SG1, 26°~31°N,122°~127°E)、产卵场2(SG2, 30°~35°N,128°~131°E)、索饵场(FG, 35°~38°N,127°~138°E)的海表面温度、太平洋年代际振荡指数(PDO)和Nino3.4区海表温距平值(SSTA),建立基于灰色系统的日本鲐对马群系资源丰度预测模型。灰色关联和相关系数分析结果显示:选择产卵场2的4月、9月海表面温度和索饵场4月海表面温度作为日本鲐资源丰度关键影响因子。建立的模型有:分别包含产卵场2的4月、9月和索饵场4月的海表面温度3个因子的GM(1,2),GM(1,3),GM(1,4)的7种模型。这7种模型的相对残差Q检验值分别为:0.131 0,0.140 2,0.145 9,0.149 3,0.176 7,0.140 3和0.173 5。结果表明,基于产卵场2的4月海表面温度所建立的GM(1,2)模型是对日本鲐对马群系资源丰度最优预测模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 日本鲐 对马群系 灰色系统 GM模型 太平洋年代际振荡 Nino3.4区海表温距平值 |
Forecast of the Abundance of the Tsushima Stock of Japanese Mackerel Based on the Grey Model |
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| XUE Yan-hui,CHEN Xin-jun,WANG Jin-tao.Forecast of the Abundance of the Tsushima Stock of Japanese Mackerel Based on the Grey Model[J].Ocean Technology,2020,39(1):77-83. |
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| Authors: | XUE Yan-hui CHEN Xin-jun WANG Jin-tao |
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| Institution: | (College of Marine Sciences,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Exploration,Ministry of Agriculture,Shanghai 201306,China;National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries,Shanghai 201306,China;Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources,Ministry of Education,Shanghai 201306,China;Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Oceanic Fishery Resources,Ministry of Agriculture,Shanghai 201306,China) |
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| Abstract: | The forecast models based on the grey system are established for Japanese mackerel(Scomber Japanicus)resources of the Tsushima group based on the data supplied by the West Sea Fisheries Research Institute of Japan from 1973 to 2016.A prediction model based on the grey system is established combined with the sea surface temperature of the spawning ground 1(SG1,26°~31°N,122°~127°E),the sea surface temperature of the spawning ground 2(SG2,30°~35°N,128°~131°E),the sea surface temperature of the feeding ground(FG,35°~38°N,127°~138°E),the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)and the Nino3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA).The results of grey correlation and correlation analysis show that the sea surface temperature of the SG2 in April and September and the sea surface temperature of the FG in April were selected as the factors to establish the model.There are seven models,including GM(1,2),GM(1,3),GM(1,4)of the three factors.The relative residual Q test values of the seven models are 0.1310,0.1402,0.1459,0.1493,0.1767,0.1403,and 0.1735,respectively.The results indicate that the model of GM(1,2)based on the sea surface temperature of the SG2 in April is the optimal model for predicting the abundance of Scomber Japanicus in the Tsushima stock. |
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| Keywords: | Scomber Japanicus Tsushima group grey system GM model Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) Nino3 4 sea surface temperature anomaly |
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