| 未来百年全球气候变化分析 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘焰 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质科学院地质研究所,北京 100037 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地质调查局“青藏高原中部羌塘—藏东地体构架及碰撞造山(编号: 1212011121271)”和“国家自然科学基金“东喜马拉雅构造结火成碳酸岩岩石学研究及其构造意义(编号: 49802018)”与“东喜马拉雅构造结变质结晶杂岩演化过程研究(编号: 40572040)”项目联合资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 未来百年全球气候变化的影响是当前学术界激烈争议的议题,深入探讨全球气候变化的驱动机理才能正确认识全球气候变化。持续生长的青藏高原吸收了巨量的CO2,导致大气中CO2浓度大幅下降,使地球从温室气候进入到以冰期、间冰期交替出现为特征的冰室气候,青藏高原成为新生碳储库。在间冰期,青藏高原和蒙古高原将淡水输送到中低纬度内陆区(以下简称内陆区),导致内陆区的硅酸岩化学风化强烈,植被和湖相沉积发育,吸收了巨量大气CO2,是碳汇; 在冰期,青藏高原、蒙古高原将内陆区表层淡水与尘埃最终输送到高纬度地区,导致内陆区荒漠化,对大气CO2的吸收量远小于其自身的排放量,内陆区成为碳源,使大气CO2浓度上升。这是中新世以来大气CO2浓度维持低浓度、准动态平衡的机理。地表平均温度的变化驱动了淡水在高、低纬度地区之间循环。人类巨量碳排放使全球大气CO2浓度暂时快速上扬,全球变暖,淡水回到内陆区,导致内陆区变绿,硅酸岩化学风化作用增强,吸收大气CO2的能力大幅提高,内陆区又变成碳汇,抑制大气CO2浓度的进一步上升; 初步测算,最早2050年、最迟2090年,当大气CO2浓度达到(510±40)×10-6时,其快速上升的趋势将得到抑制; 未来百年尺度的全球气候变化受地球和太阳内部的构造活动所驱动,是周期性变化的、是可预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 青藏高原 全球气候变化 新生碳储库 表层水循环 碳排放 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-11-20 |
Analysis of global climate change in the next one hundred years |
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| Authors: | LIU Yan |
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| Institution: | Institute of Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China |
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| Abstract: | The consequences of global climate change in the next one hundred years is a hotly-debated topic at present, and the deep discussion of the driving mechanism for global climate change can truly help recognize the global climate change. The continuous growth of Tibetan Plateau has absorbed a huge amount of atmospheric CO2, which leads to the sharp drop of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. From the greenhouse climate, the Earth has entered into an icehouse climate characterized by the cycling of glacial and interglacial periods, and has become a new carbon reservoir. During the interglacial period, the Tibetan Plateau and the Mongolian Plateau transported a huge amount of fresh water to the inland areas at middle and low latitudes (referred as the inland area below), which resulted in the strong chemical weathering of silicate rocks. The vegetation and lacustrine deposition were developed, which absorbed huge amount of atmospheric CO2, as a carbon sink. During the glacial period, the Tibetan Plateau and the Mongolian Plateau eventually transported a large amount of surface fresh water and dust from the inland areas to the high latitude areas, resulting in the occurrence of desertification in the inland areas. The absorbed CO2 was far less than the emitted amount, and the inland areas became the carbon source area. Therefore, the atmospheric CO2 concentration increased. This mechanism has maintained the low concentration and pseudo dynamic equilibrium of atmospheric CO2 since the Miocene. The mean surface temperature drove the circulation of fresh water between high and low latitudes. The huge amount of anthropogenic carbon emission caused the rapid rise of atmospheric CO2 concentration and global warming. Therefore, the fresh water returned to the inland area, resulting in the rapid green in inland areas and more intense chemical weathering of silicate. The ability to absorb atmospheric CO2 was dramatically enhanced, and the inland areas were switched from the carbon source area to the carbon sink area, which prevented the further rise of atmospheric CO2 concentration. According to the preliminary calculation in this study, when atmospheric CO2 concentration reaches (510±40)×10-6, the rapid increasing trend will be restrained, as early as 2050 and as late as 2090. Future century-scale climate change is therefore predictable and periodic, driven by tectonic activities within the Earth and Sun. |
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| Keywords: | Tibetan Plateau global climate change new carbon reservoir surface water cycling carbon emissions |
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