| 坡面泥石流降雨预报模型 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 余斌,朱云波,刘秧.坡面泥石流降雨预报模型[J].水科学进展,2017,28(6):839-848. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 余斌 朱云波 刘秧 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室, 四川 成都 610059; |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目（41672341） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 中国东部地区的地质灾害多以坡面泥石流的形式发生，预测预报坡面泥石流的发生对于开展防灾减灾具有重要意义。地形、地质和降雨三大条件是影响坡面泥石流发生的主要条件。通过选择同样地质条件和基本相同降雨条件的区域，研究影响坡面泥石流发生的地形条件，并得出可以用于坡面泥石流预报的坡面泥石流地形条件。结果表明:地形条件由坡面坡度因子、泥石流上部因子、泥石流侧面因子和临空面因子组成；较大的地形条件T对应较大的泥石流发生可能性；降雨条件由泥石流发生前的降雨量与1 h降雨量组成；得出了由地形条件T和降雨条件R组成的坡面泥石流预报条件P，P值越大，坡面泥石流发生的可能性越大。预报条件P可以预报坡面泥石流的发生。
|
| 关 键 词： | 地形条件 降雨条件 坡面泥石流 预报模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-09-30 |
Prediction model of hillslope debris flows |
| |
| YU Bin,ZHU Yunbo,LIU Yang.Prediction model of hillslope debris flows[J].Advances in Water Science,2017,28(6):839-848. |
| |
| Authors: | YU Bin ZHU Yunbo LIU Yang |
| |
| Institution: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China;2.Chengdu Center of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology of Sichuan Provincial Geology and Mineral Resources Bureau, Chengdu 610083, China;3.Survey and Design Institute of Xiangtan City, Xiangtan 411100, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Hillslope debris flows are the major geological hazards in East China. It is very important to predict these dangerous phenomena. Three groups of conditions related to topography, geology and hydrology have influence on the triggering of these hillslope debris flows. We isolated and analyzed the influence of the topography on the triggering of hillslope debris flows in catchments with almost identical hydrological and geological conditions and propose a new so called T-condition as a topographical indicator which is a combination of slope angle, upslope contributing area and cross-section and free-face of a (potential) hillslope debris flow. The T-condition can be used to define threshold values for possible hillslope debris flow development. Higher T-condition values are related to higher probabilities of debris flow events. An R-condition is used as a rainfall indicator, which is a combination of the antecedent one hour rainfall, the antecedent cumulative rainfall and the annual rainfall. Higher R-condition values are generally related to higher probabilities of hillslope debris flow events. The prediction condition P, which is the combination of T and R, gives a final indication of debris flow probability and it can be used to define threshold values for the hillslope debris flows. |
| |
| Keywords: | topographical condition rainfall condition hillslope debris flow prediction model |
|
| 点击此处可从《水科学进展》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《水科学进展》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
