| 北极海冰对长江流域主汛期降雨的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 王乐,杨文发,张录军,李春龙,张方伟.北极海冰对长江流域主汛期降雨的影响[J].水科学进展,2019,30(5):623-631. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王乐 杨文发 张录军 李春龙 张方伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.长江水利委员会水文局, 湖北 武汉 430010; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划资助项目（2016YFC0402708；2018YFC1508002） |
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| 摘 要： | 针对极地冰雪显著影响中低纬气候的事实，利用1979-2017年长江流域116站降水资料和美国国家冰雪数据中心海冰资料，通过奇异值分解等统计学方法，研究北极海冰对长江流域主汛期降水的影响及可能的机制，结果表明:冬春季节，巴伦支海和鄂霍次克海海冰面积偏多、波佛特海海冰面积偏少时，主汛期长江上中游干流、汉江上游和雅砻江降水偏多；北极群岛、楚科奇海和拉普捷夫海以北海域海冰面积偏多时，主汛期两湖水系降水偏多，嘉陵江上游、汉江上游降水偏少；反之亦然。可能的机制为冬春季关键区海冰变化通过影响湍流热通量引发大气能量波动，这种波动以大气波列形式向东亚传播，影响东亚地区夏季的大气环流和水汽输送，从而间接影响长江流域主汛期降水。应用多元回归法，以关键区海冰面积作为预测因子建立4个流域内主汛期降水趋势预测模型，模型对预报区降水的定量预测有明显的波动，但对预报区总体的降水趋势有较好的预测效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 北极海冰 降水 主汛期 预测 长江流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-04-11 |
Effect of Arctic sea ice on precipitation in the main flood season of the Yangtze River basin |
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| WANG Le,YANG Wenfa,ZHANG Lujun,LI Chunlong,ZHANG Fangwei.Effect of Arctic sea ice on precipitation in the main flood season of the Yangtze River basin[J].Advances in Water Science,2019,30(5):623-631. |
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| Authors: | WANG Le YANG Wenfa ZHANG Lujun LI Chunlong ZHANG Fangwei |
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| Institution: | 1.The Yangtze River Water Resources Commission Hydrology Bureau, Wuhan 430010, China;2.School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China |
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| Abstract: | In view of the significant impacts that polar ice has on the climate of the mid-low latitudes,this paper mainly analyses the effects and possible mechanism of Arctic sea ice on the precipitation in the main flood season of the Yangtze River basin by statistical methods such as Singular Value Decomposition. The precipitation data is collected from 116 rainfall stations in the Yangtze River basin and the sea ice data is provided by the United States National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC),both periods are 1979-2017. The results show as follows:In winter and spring,when ice area in the Barents Sea and Okhotsk Sea was more than the average and that in the Beaufort Sea was less than the average,then summer precipitation in upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River,the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River and the Yalong River increased;When winter-spring ice area in the northern part of the Arctic Archipelago,Chukchi Sea and Laptev Sea was much,summer precipitation in the Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake was much too,but it was less in the upper reaches of the Jialing River and Hanjiang River; and vice versa. The possible mechanism is that the sea ice variation in key regions in winter and spring stimulates atmospheric energy fluctuation by affecting turbulent heat flux. This fluctuation propagates to East Asia in the form of atmospheric wave trains and affects the summer atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport in East Asia,thus indirectly affecting precipitation of the Yangtze River basin in the main flood season. Based on the multivariate regression method,four prediction models of precipitation in the main flood season are built by taking the sea ice area in key region as predictors. The models have obvious fluctuation on quantitative precipitation prediction,but it has a relatively good effect on precipitation trend prediction. |
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| Keywords: | Arctic sea ice precipitation main flood season prediction Yangtze River basin |
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