| 工业用水N型环境库兹涅茨曲线及其形成机制——以山东省为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 程亮,胡霞,王宗志,刘克琳.工业用水N型环境库兹涅茨曲线及其形成机制——以山东省为例[J].水科学进展,2019,30(5):673-681. |
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| 作者姓名： | 程亮 胡霞 王宗志 刘克琳 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210029; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目（51509158）；江苏省自然科学基金资助项目（BK20150075） |
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| 摘 要： | 判别工业用水环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）形状，揭示其形成机制，能够指示工业用水量随经济发展的长期变化趋势，可为工业用水管理提供重要依据。以山东省1980-2016年工业用水为例，采用三次模型、二次模型和非参数局部加权回归（LOWESS），分析工业用水与人均GDP人均关系，判断工业用水EKC形状；通过由对数平均迪式指数法（LMDI）测算出的用水效率、产业结构和经济规模对工业用水变化贡献值，以及利用四参数Logistic曲线得出的工业用水效率长期变化特征，定量分析揭示N型EKC的形成机制。结果表明，山东省工业用水随人均GDP增加先增长、后下降、再增长，工业用水EKC形状为N型；在工业用水效率快速提高、工业用水量持续下降后，由于用水效率逐渐接近极限、提高速度减缓、节水量大幅降低，经济规模扩张增加的用水量无法被抵消，工业用水不再下降、反而出现再增长，曲线形状由倒U型变成N型。N型是对倒U型工业用水EKC的一个补充，工业用水量不会"自动"持续下降，而是存在再增长可能；要实现工业用水量持续下降，必须深度挖掘节水潜力，持续提高用水效率，并推动工业结构向节水方向调整。
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| 关 键 词： | 工业用水 N型环境库兹涅茨曲线 对数平均迪式指数法 四参数Logistic曲线 山东省 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-01-03 |
The N-shaped industrial water use environmental Kuznets curve and its formation mechanism: a case study from Shandong Province |
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| CHENG Liang,HU Xia,WANG Zongzhi,LIU Kelin.The N-shaped industrial water use environmental Kuznets curve and its formation mechanism: a case study from Shandong Province[J].Advances in Water Science,2019,30(5):673-681. |
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| Authors: | CHENG Liang HU Xia WANG Zongzhi LIU Kelin |
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| Institution: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China;2.Fuzhou Municipal Construction Investment Co., Ltd., Fuzhou 344000, China |
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| Abstract: | The industrial water use environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) and its formation mechanism can not only indicate the relationship between industrial water use and economic development,but also provide important information for industrial water use management. The cubic model,quadratic model,and Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOWESS) were used to identify this relationship in Shandong Province. To quantitatively analyze the formation mechanism of the industrial water use EKC,the contributions to the change in industrial water use by the three drivers,including water use efficiency (WUE),industrial structure and economic scale,was calculated by the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) method;while the long-term change characteristics of industrial WUE was analyze by the four-parameter logistic curve. Results indicate that the industrial water use in Shandong Province during 1980-2016 first increased,then declined,and finally increased again;further,there is an N-shaped EKC,in addition to the inverted U-shaped one. After the WUE is greatly improved and industrial water use continuously reduced,the WUE will gradually approach its limit. Thus,the rate of improvement of water use efficiency slows down and the water saving effect is greatly reduced. When the increase in water use caused by the expansion of the economic scale cannot be offset,the industrial water use will increase again instead of decline,and the shape of the curve changes from an inverted U-shaped to N-shaped. The existence of an N-shaped curve indicates that the industrial water use may increase again instead of an automatic continuous decline. To reduce industrial water use,it is necessary to make full use of the water-saving potential,continuously improve water use efficiency,and adapt the industrial structure to promote water saving. |
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| Keywords: | industrial water use N-shaped environmental Kuznets curve logarithmic mean divisia index four-parameter logistic curve Shandong Province |
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