| 基于耦合相似指标的最近邻法在年径流预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李红霞,何清燕,彭辉,覃光华,丁晶.基于耦合相似指标的最近邻法在年径流预测中的应用[J].水科学进展,2015,26(2):161-168. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李红霞 何清燕 彭辉 覃光华 丁晶 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室, 四川成都 610065; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2013CB036401);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51209152)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 根据水文现象相似特性建立的最近邻法,避免了对研究对象相依形式和概率分布形式做某种假定,是一类基于数据驱动的预测方法。影响该方法预测成果优劣的关键因素之一是特征矢量相似程度衡量指标的选取。为了在度量相似程度时兼顾"矢"和"量"的信息,在深入分析余弦距离与欧氏距离异同的基础上,尝试将二者耦合作为相似度的技术指标,建立了基于耦合相似指标的最近邻法,并将该方法应用到宜昌水文站和唐乃亥水文站预见期为一年的年径流预测,利用不同水文特性的年径流资料进行校验,结果表明:基于耦合指标的最近邻法,能较好地进行年径流的预测分析,是一种有效、可行的方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 最近邻 相似度 余弦距离 耦合指标 年径流 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-08-13 |
Nearest neighbor method based on a coupled similarity indicator and its application in annual runoff prediction |
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| LI Hongxia;HE Qingyan;PENG Hui;QIN Guanghua;DING Jing.Nearest neighbor method based on a coupled similarity indicator and its application in annual runoff prediction[J].Advances in Water Science,2015,26(2):161-168. |
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| Authors: | LI Hongxia;HE Qingyan;PENG Hui;QIN Guanghua;DING Jing |
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| Institution: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, College of Water Resource & Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China;2.Hydrology Bureau of the Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100053, China |
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| Abstract: | The nearest neighbor method (NNM) based on hydrological similarity is a data-driven prediction method, the use of which allows for avoiding making certain assumptions about the dependence and probability distribution forms of objects of study. One of the key factors that affect the quality of the predicted results using this method is the selection of the measure of the similarity in eigenvectors. In order to give consideration to the information about "direction" and "quantity" while measuring similarity, this paper tries to couple Cosine distance and Euclidean distance to the technical indicator for similarity after thoroughly analyzing their differences and similarities. The nearest neighbor method based on coupled similarity indictor was used for the annual runoff prediction of Yichang hydrological station and Tangnaihai hydrological station, and the annual runoff data for different hydrological characteristics were used for checking. The results show that the nearest neighbor method based on the coupled indicator can appropriately predict annual runoff. It is an effective, feasible method. |
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| Keywords: | nearest neighbor similarity cosine distance coupled indicator annual runoff |
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