| 气候变化情景下北江飞来峡水库极端入库洪水预估 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄国如,武传号,刘志雨,陈芷菁,胡健伟,尹志杰.气候变化情景下北江飞来峡水库极端入库洪水预估[J].水科学进展,2015,26(1):10-19. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄国如 武传号 刘志雨 陈芷菁 胡健伟 尹志杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.华南理工大学土木与交通学院, 广东广州 510640; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2010CB428405);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(201301093)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 以北江飞来峡水库上游为研究对象,构建了网格分辨率为0.25°×0.25°的VIC(Variable Infiltration Capacity)水文模型,应用CMIP5多模式输出的降尺度结果与VIC模型耦合,对RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下未来时期(2020-2050年)飞来峡水库的入库洪水进行预估,并根据IPCC第5次评估报告处理和表达不确定性的方法来描述预估结论的可信度。结果表明,2020-2050年飞来峡水库年最大洪峰流量和年最大7日、15日洪量在RCP2.6情景下"大约可能"呈增加趋势,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下"较为可能"呈增加趋势,水库防洪安全风险增大。与历史时期(1970-2000年)相比,未来水库极端入库洪水增加的可能性从大到小依次为RCP4.5、RCP2.6和RCP8.5情景,其中设计洪水100年、50年和20年一遇的洪峰流量在3种排放情景下均呈上升趋势,100年、50年和20年一遇的最大7日、15日洪量在RCP4.5情景下以上升为主,而在RCP2.6和RCP8.5情景下则主要呈减少态势。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 第5次耦合模式比较计划 VIC模型 飞来峡水库 洪峰流量 洪水预估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-06-24 |
Prediction of extreme floods of the Feilaixia reservoir in the Beijiang River basin under climate change |
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| HUANG Guoru;WU Chuanhao;LIU Zhiyu;CHEN Zhijing;HU Jianwei;YIN Zhijie.Prediction of extreme floods of the Feilaixia reservoir in the Beijiang River basin under climate change[J].Advances in Water Science,2015,26(1):10-19. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Guoru;WU Chuanhao;LIU Zhiyu;CHEN Zhijing;HU Jianwei;YIN Zhijie |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China;2.State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building Science, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China;3.Water Resources Information Center of the Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100053, China;4.Hydrology Bureau of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou 510150, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the downscaling results of the multi-model dataset from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were coupled with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to predict future floods of the Feilaixia reservoir in the Beijiang River basin under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Credibility of the projected changes in floods is described using an uncertainty expression approach, as recommended by the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results indicate that annual maximum flood peak and maximum 7-day and 15-day flood volumes during 2020-2050 would be "about as likely as not" to show an upward trend under the RCP2.6 scenario and "more likely than not" to show an upward trend under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Compared with the 1970-2000 historical period, the flood peaks in the 100 a, 50 a, and 20 a return periods are projected to increase under all future scenarios. In contrast, the maximum 7-day and 15-day flood volumes in the 100 a, 50 a, and 20 a return periods would increase under the RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. |
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| Keywords: | climate change coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 variable infiltration capacity model Feilaixia reservoir flood peak predictions of floods |
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