| 气候变化对黄河流域生态径流影响预估 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘绿柳,魏麟骁,徐影,辛晓歌,肖潺.气候变化对黄河流域生态径流影响预估[J].水科学进展,2021,32(6):824-833. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘绿柳 魏麟骁 徐影 辛晓歌 肖潺 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.国家气候中心, 北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划资助项目2017YFA0605004国家重点研发计划资助项目2018YFE0196000 |
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| 摘 要： | 人类活动和气候变化严重改变了黄河水文情势和生态径流，分析未来气候变化对河流生态的影响对流域水资源管理和长期规划意义重大。本文对第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的13个全球气候模式数据进行偏差订正，驱动水文模型进行径流模拟，应用流量历时曲线方法分析SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5情景下2026年至21世纪末年、季节尺度的花园口生态径流变化。结果表明:订正能明显降低降水、气温模拟偏差；人类活动严重影响了1986-2010年花园口生态径流；2026-2100年年均气温和年降水量增加趋势显著，低排放情景增速慢，高排放情景增速快；气候变化可在一定程度上缓解水库调控、水土保持等人类活动对生态径流的负面影响，SSP5-8.5情景缓解程度最高，冬季缓解程度最高，夏、秋季最低。
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| 关 键 词： | 生态径流 气候变化 偏差订正 生态盈余 生态赤字 黄河流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-05-20 |
Projection of climate change impacts on ecological flow in the Yellow River basin |
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| Institution: | 1.National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China2.Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing 401147, China |
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| Abstract: | Climate change and human activities has severely changed streamflow and eco-flow in the Yellow River basin. It is of great significance for the long-term management and planning of water resources to analyze whether future climate change will alleviate the impacts of human activities on the river. Here, daily runoff was simulated using hydrological model which was driven by the dataset of 13 climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) after correction. Then, both annual and seasonal variation of eco-flow at Huayuankou station from 2026 to 2100 were estimated based on the method of flow duration curve under scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The results suggest that bias was reduced obviously after correction, human activities severely affected eco-flow at the Huayuankou station during 1986-2010, the increasing trends of annual mean temperature and annual precipitation will be significant from 2026 to 2100 with the smallest rate under SSP1-2.6 but the largest rate under SSP5-8.5, and climate change will alleviate the negative impacts of human activities on eco-flow in the Yellow River Basin to some extent, with the most under scenario SSP5-8.5, and the most in winter but the least in summer and autumn. |
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