| 黄淮海流域植被覆盖变化对径流的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 张建云,张成凤,鲍振鑫,李淼,王国庆,管晓祥,刘翠善.黄淮海流域植被覆盖变化对径流的影响[J].水科学进展,2021,32(6):813-823. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张建云 张成凤 鲍振鑫 李淼 王国庆 管晓祥 刘翠善 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.河海大学水文水资源学院, 江苏 南京 210098 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划资助项目2017YFA0605002国家自然科学基金资助项目41961124007 |
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| 摘 要： | 植被是流域水循环过程的重要环境因子之一，植被变化对径流的影响是当前研究的国际前沿和热点问题。以全球变绿最突出的黄淮海流域为研究对象，基于1982-2016年水文气象观测资料及归一化植被指数（NDVI）数据，利用Mann-Kendall等趋势检验方法检测NDVI的时空变化特征。基于Budyko-Fu公式构建黄淮海流域水热耦合模拟模型，分析模拟径流对Budyko-Fu模型参数ω的敏感性；基于参数ω与气候、植被等要素的统计关系，建立利用气候季节性指数和NDVI计算参数ω的经验公式，利用弹性系数法，识别参数ω对NDVI变化的响应，利用复合函数链式求导法则研究NDVI变化对黄淮海流域径流的影响。结果表明:1982-2016年黄淮海流域NDVI呈显著增加趋势；NDVI增加会使模型参数ω增加，进而导致径流量减少；NDVI每增加10%，黄淮海流域径流量平均减少8.3%；植被变化对径流的影响具有显著的空间差异性，气候越干旱、植被条件越差地区的NDVI变化对径流影响越显著。
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| 关 键 词： | 植被变化 径流响应 Budyko假设 弹性系数 黄淮海流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-03-15 |
Analysis of the effects of vegetation changes on runoff in the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin under global change |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Hydrology and Water Resource, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China2.Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China3.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China4.Water Conservancy Bureau of Yongzhou, Yongzhou 425000, China |
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| Abstract: | Vegetation is one of the critical environmental factors driving the hydrologic cycle. The impact of vegetation change on runoff is a hot issue. As a pronounced greening region, the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin (HHHRB) was selected as the studying area. Based on long-term (1982-2016) hydro-meteorological and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets, the spatial and temporal change in NDVI was detected using Mann-Kendall's test methodology. The relationship between NDVI and the parameter ω of Budyko-Fu's model was analyzed using an empirical formula and an elasticity method. Taking the parameter ω as a link, the impact of NDVI change on runoff in HHHRB was investigated with the chain rule for derivatives of complex functions. Several new findings were investigated: ① There was a statistically significant increasing trend in NDVI during the last 35 years over HHHRB. ② An increase in NDVI would increase the model parameter ω, thereby leading to a decrease in the runoff. ③ There might be an average reduction of 8.3% in runoff as a 10% increase in NDVI in the HHHRB. ④ The runoff was more sensitive to NDVI change under drier climate and sparser vegetation conditions. The results could improve the understanding of the mechanism of the water cycle in a changing environment and might provide scientific and technological support for water resources planning and vegetation management. |
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