| 长江流域水储量变化的时间变化特征及归因分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 聂宁,张万昌,陈豪,赵登忠,刘敏.长江流域水储量变化的时间变化特征及归因分析[J].水科学进展,2021,32(3):396-407. |
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| 作者姓名： | 聂宁 张万昌 陈豪 赵登忠 刘敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室, 上海 200241 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划资助项目2017YFE0100700国家自然科学基金资助项目41901228 |
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| 摘 要： | 为开展长江流域水储量变化（Terrestrial Water Storage Change，TWSC）的时间变化特征及归因分析研究，结合GRACE（Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment）卫星观测及水文模拟，重建并分析了长江流域1988—2012年逐月TWSC；基于13个实验情景的模拟结果，定量区分了气候波动及关键人类活动（土地利用变化、水库调蓄）对TWSC的相对贡献。结果表明:①流域平均TWSC、降水、蒸散发、径流深分别以0.1 mm/a、-3.5 mm/a、0.6 mm/a、-4.2 mm/a的线性速率增减；②逐月非季节性TWSC与南方涛动指数（Southern Oscillation Index，ISO）呈现显著负相关性（α < 0.01）；③气候波动对TWSC影响占主导地位，水库调蓄与气候波动对月平均TWSC的相对贡献率存在负相关性；④三峡水库运行后，水库调蓄对月平均TWSC的影响显著增强，且呈现季节性规律，即1—5月削减TWSC，7—12月增加TWSC。本研究提供了一种TWSC归因分析研究框架，研究结果可为长江流域水资源规划管理提供决策支持。
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| 关 键 词： | 水储量 归因分析 卫星观测 水文模拟 长江流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-04-08 |
Temporal variation characteristics and attribution analysis of terrestrial water storage change in the Yangtze River basin |
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| Abstract: | We explored the temporal variation and attribution characteristics of terrestrial water storage change (TWSC) in the Yangtze River basin by using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite observations and hydrological model simulations and reconstructing and analysing the monthly TWSC over the Yangtze River basin during 1988—2012. Based on the simulation results of 13 scenarios, we quantitatively separated the relative contributions of climate variability and crucial human activities (including land use changes and reservoir operations) to TWSC. The main results were as follows: ① The basin-level averaged TWSC, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff depth showed changing trends at linear rates of 0.1, -3.5, 0.6, and-4.2 mm/a, respectively. ② The monthly non-seasonal TWSC was significantly and negatively correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index, with a significance level of α < 0.01. ③ Climate variability played a leading role in the TWSC variations, and the contribution rates of reservoir operations to the monthly mean TWSC were negatively correlated with those of climate variability, and lastly. ④ Following the construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir, the influence of reservoir regulation on the monthly mean TWSC was significantly enhanced; it presented seasonal variations in which TWSC was reduced by reservoir operations during January—May and enhanced during July—December. This study developed a useful research framework for attribution analyses on TWSC, and the results can provide decision support for water resource planning and management in the Yangtze River basin. |
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