| 粮食产量对气候变化驱动水资源变化的响应 |
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| 引用本文： | 王婕,张建云,鲍振鑫,王国庆,吴厚发,杨艳青.粮食产量对气候变化驱动水资源变化的响应[J].水科学进展,2021,32(6):855-866. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王婕 张建云 鲍振鑫 王国庆 吴厚发 杨艳青 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.天津大学建筑工程学院, 天津 300000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划资助项目2017YFA0605002国家自然科学基金国际（地区）合作与交流项目41961124007 |
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| 摘 要： | 水资源是支撑粮食生产的重要因素之一，气候变化驱动下的水资源变化及对粮食产量的影响是当前研究的国际前沿和热点问题。以汾河流域冬小麦和夏玉米2种主要粮食作物为研究对象，利用线性回归、人工神经网络、支持向量机、随机森林、径向基网络、极限学习机等6种机器学习算法构建粮食产量模拟模型，基于气候弹性系数法分析水资源量对气候变化响应关系，在流域尺度上研究粮食产量对气候变化驱动水资源变化的综合响应。结果表明:①机器学习算法能够较好地模拟汾河流域的冬小麦和夏玉米产量；②降水增加10%导致汾河流域水资源量增加19.4%，气温升高1℃导致水资源量减少4.3%；③当降水减少10%~30%时，冬小麦产量减少6.4%~19.3%，夏玉米产量减少4.0%~15.0%；④当气温升高0.5~3.0℃时，冬小麦产量预计增加1.8%~17.1%，夏玉米产量预计增加1.2%~7.9%；⑤汾河流域冬小麦产量对降水和气温变化的敏感性大于夏玉米。相关成果对于区域水资源管理和农业生产策略制定具有重要的科学意义和实用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 水资源 影响 粮食产量 响应 汾河流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-05-21 |
Response of grain yield to climate change driving water resources change |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300000, China2.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China3.Research Center for Climate Change of MWR, Nanjing 210029, China |
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| Abstract: | Water resources is one of the important factors impacting food production. It's a hot issue to investigate the response of grain yield to climate change driving water resources change. Taking winter wheat and summer maize in Fenhe River basin as the study object, six machine learning algorithms were used to build the yield prediction models, including Linear Regression, Back Propagation Neural Networks, Support Vector Machine Regression, Random Forest, Radial Basis Function, and Extreme Learning Machine. Based on the response of water resources to climate change by the climate-elasticity coefficient, the comprehensive response of grain yield was analyzed on a catchment scale, which was related to climate change driving water resources change. The results indicated that ① Machine learning algorithms performed well on the simulation yield of the winter wheat and summer maize in Fenhe River basin. ② There was a 19.4% increase in water resources as a 10% increase in precipitation, otherwise, a 1℃ increase in temperature might lead to a 4.3% decrease in water resources. ③ If precipitation decreased by 10%-30%, the yields of winter wheat and summer maize would decrease by 6.4%-19.3% and 4.0%-15.0%, respectively. ④ When the temperature increased by 0.5-3.0℃, there might be 1.8%-17.1% and 1.2%-7.9% increases in the yields of winter wheat and summer maize, respectively. ⑤ The yield of winter wheat was more sensitive to climate change than that of summer maize in the Fenhe River basin. The results were useful for future adaptive strategies of water resources management and agricultural production. |
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