| 复杂边界条件多洪源防洪保护区洪水风险分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 卢程伟,周建中,江焱生,何典灿.复杂边界条件多洪源防洪保护区洪水风险分析[J].水科学进展,2018,29(4):514-522. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 卢程伟 周建中 江焱生 何典灿 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院, 湖北 武汉 430074; |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划资助项目（2016YFC0402209）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（91547208） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为了定量获取防洪保护区在多洪源和复杂边界条件下的溃堤洪水风险信息，以非恒定流控制方程为理论基础，建立了多洪源一维河网水动力学模型和防洪保护区二维洪水演进模型，利用溃坝模型实现河道与保护区的耦联，并采用局部网格加密和相似建筑物模拟等方法处理保护区内道路等复杂边界的导阻水作用。利用所建模型模拟了长江、汉江和东荆河3种不同洪水来源， 在4种不同位置溃堤情况下汉南至白庙长江干堤防洪保护区的洪水淹没情景，采用基于淹没水深的损失率关系法对比分析了4种计算方案的淹没面积、经济损失和受灾人口。结果表明:模型构建合理、稳定性和适应性好，复杂边界对洪水演进过程影响明显，不同洪源溃堤情形的风险信息差异较大；在计算条件下，以长江发生1954年型300年一遇洪水向新溃口情形下的淹没损失最严重，其淹没面积达3 790 km2，受灾人口为196.8万人，经济损失约802亿元。研究成果可为洪水风险管理与避洪转移决策提供有力的技术支撑。
|
| 关 键 词： | 防洪保护区 风险分析 堤防溃决 多洪源 复杂边界 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-12-26 |
Risk analysis of flood protected zone with complex boundary conditions and multi-flood sources |
| |
| LU Chengwei,ZHOU Jianzhong,JIANG Yansheng,HE Diancan.Risk analysis of flood protected zone with complex boundary conditions and multi-flood sources[J].Advances in Water Science,2018,29(4):514-522. |
| |
| Authors: | LU Chengwei ZHOU Jianzhong JIANG Yansheng HE Diancan |
| |
| Institution: | 1.School of Hydropower and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China;2.Hubei Key Laboratory of Digital Valley Science and Technology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China;3.Hubei Provincial Department of Water Resources, Wuhan 430071, China;4.School of Aerospace Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to estimate the risk of dike-break flood in the flood protected zone under multi-flood sources and complex boundary conditions, a one-dimensional multi-breach model and a two-dimensional flood routing model were established based on unsteady flow control equation. A dam-break model was used to couple rivers and flood protected zones, and local mesh refinement method and approximate structure generalization method were used to deal with water division and blocking resulting from the complex boundaries such as roads in the flood protected zones. Four flood scenarios of the flood protected zone from Hannan to Baimiao from three flood sources including the Yangtze River, Hanjiang River, and Dongjinghe River were simulated. The flooding area, economic loss and flood-affected population were compared and analyzed by the loss rate method based on inundation depths. The results showed that the model established in this study was reasonable and stable. The complex boundary had a significant impact on the flood routing, and the risk differed significantly depending on the flood sources. The worst situation was observed in a 300-year flood occurred in 1954 in the Yangtze River at the dike-break position of Xiangxin, resulting the submergence of 3 790 km2 area, a flood-affected population of 1.968 million, and an economic loss of 80.2 billion yuan. This study can provide strong technical supports for flood risk management and decision-making of refuge and migration. |
| |
| Keywords: | flood protected zone risk analysis dike-break multi-flood sources complex boundaries |
|
| 点击此处可从《水科学进展》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《水科学进展》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
