| 气候自然变异在气候变化对水资源影响 评价中的贡献分析——Ⅱ.未来期应用分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘艳丽,张建云,王国庆,刘九夫,贺瑞敏,王鸿杰,金君良.气候自然变异在气候变化对水资源影响 评价中的贡献分析——Ⅱ.未来期应用分析[J].水科学进展,2012,23(2):156-162. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘艳丽 张建云 王国庆 刘九夫 贺瑞敏 王鸿杰 金君良 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 水利部应对气候变化研究中心, 江苏南京 210029;2. 南京水利科学研究院, 江苏南京 210029;3. 河南省水文水资源局, 河南郑州 450003 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)资助项目(2010CB951103);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51009094)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 基于模型率定期(基准期)气候自然变异的模拟方法及气候自然变异引起的径流变化的可能情况分析,此部分研究未来期(2021~2051年,2061~2091年)气候变化下径流变化情况及气候自然变异的影响。基于CSIRO、NCAR、MPI三种气候模式及A1B、A2、B1三种排放方式共7种未来气候情景,应用和基准期相同的水文模型和研究流域,引入基准期模型率定出的参数,考虑气候自然变异的影响,对未来气候变化对水资源的影响进行分析。为消除气候模式本身的系统误差,采用δ差值方法得到各模式各排放情景下的未来气候情景。该项研究主要说明如何在气候变化的影响评价中将气候自然变异的贡献分离出来,从而实现更客观的气候变化的影响评价。研究结果表明,气候变异的影响在整个气候变化进程中的贡献随时间的推移将有所不同。未来2021~2051年期间,气候自然变异的影响相对较大;未来2061~2091年期间,由温室气体引起的气候变化的影响占主导。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 气候自然变异 影响评价 δ差值方法 不确定性 水资源 |
Evaluation on the influence of natural climate variability in assessing climate change impacts on water resources:Ⅱ. Application in future climate |
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| LIU Yan-li
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ZHANG Jian-yun
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WANG Guo-qing
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LIU Jiu-fu
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HE Rui-min
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WANG Hong-jie
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JIN Jun-liang.Evaluation on the influence of natural climate variability in assessing climate change impacts on water resources:Ⅱ. Application in future climate[J].Advances in Water Science,2012,23(2):156-162. |
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| Authors: | LIU Yan-li ZHANG Jian-yun WANG Guo-qing LIU Jiu-fu HE Rui-min WANG Hong-jie JIN Jun-liang |
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| Institution: | 1. Research Center for Climate Change of Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China;2. Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China;3. Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450003, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the methodology of sampling natural variability in calibration period(baseline period) and the analysis of runoff variation probability affected by climate natural variability of Part I,this part focuses on the runoff change and attribution analysis in future climate of two future periods(2021-2051,2061-2091).Allowing for seven future climate projections in total of three GCMs(CSIRO,NCAR,MPI) and three emission scenarios(A1B,A2,B1),based on the same hydrological model,study case and the calibrated parameters from the part I,the impact of future climate change on water resources was estimated in terms of separating the contribution from climate natural variability.Delta change approach was employed for removing the systematic errors of GCM.These tow parts research mainly demonstrated how to identify the effect of climate natural fluctuation in climate change impact assessment,to derive the impact assessment in a more objective manner.The results show relatively the contribution of climate natural variability could vary in the foreseeable and far future.For the future period from 2021 to 2051,the impact of climate natural variability may play a major part.While for the period from 2061 to 2091,climate change attributed to greenhouse gases may dominate the changing process. |
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| Keywords: | climate change climate natural variability impact assessment delta change method uncertainty water resources |
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