| 气候自然变异在气候变化对水资源影响 评价中的贡献分析——Ⅰ.基准期的模型与方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘艳丽,张建云,王国庆,刘九夫,贺瑞敏,王鸿杰,金君良.气候自然变异在气候变化对水资源影响 评价中的贡献分析——Ⅰ.基准期的模型与方法[J].水科学进展,2012,23(2):147-155. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘艳丽 张建云 王国庆 刘九夫 贺瑞敏 王鸿杰 金君良 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 水利部应对气候变化研究中心, 江苏南京 210029;2. 南京水利科学研究院, 江苏南京 210029;3. 河南省水文水资源局, 河南郑州 450003 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)资助项目(2010CB951103);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51009094)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 基于气候变化影响的水资源评价对水资源规划和管理具有重要意义,随着全球气候变化影响的加剧,这一研究显得越来越紧迫。在目前的气候变化研究中,很少考虑气候自然波动的影响(气候自然变异),常将所有的变化单独归因于气候变化的影响,这在气候变化的影响评价中可能导致错误的理解与判断。气候自然变异分析由于缺乏超长系列的数据资料而长期被人为避开。针对这一问题,本研究提出模型方法体系,通过历史基准期的长系列模拟来分析气候自然变异的影响。选取常用的1961~1990年水文系列作为基准期,提出一种基于拉丁超立方体抽样技术的季节分段抽样模拟方法,实现对气候自然变异的模拟。应用水文模型TOPMODEL对基准期的径流系列进行模拟,基于不确定性分析GLUE方法对基准期内水文模型参数不确定性进行分析,并探讨了气候自然变异的影响。研究结果表明,在气候变化影响评价中,气候自然变异的影响不可忽略,应在气候变化的影响中加以区分和界定。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 气候自然变异 分段抽样模拟方法 影响评价 不确定性 水资源 |
Evaluation on the influence of natural climate variability in assessing climate change impacts on water resources:Ⅰ. Model and methodology in baseline period |
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| LIU Yan-li
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ZHANG Jian-yun
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WANG Guo-qing
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LIU Jiu-fu
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HE Rui-min
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WANG Hong-jie
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JIN Jun-liang.Evaluation on the influence of natural climate variability in assessing climate change impacts on water resources:Ⅰ. Model and methodology in baseline period[J].Advances in Water Science,2012,23(2):147-155. |
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| Authors: | LIU Yan-li ZHANG Jian-yun WANG Guo-qing LIU Jiu-fu HE Rui-min WANG Hong-jie JIN Jun-liang |
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| Institution: | 1. Research Center for Climate Change of Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China;2. Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China;3. Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450003, China |
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| Abstract: | Water resources assessment impacted by climate change is very important to water resources planning and management.This issue is becoming more urgent as evidences of intensifying climate change are growing.In the current research of climate change impact,climate natural fluctuation(variability) has seldom been studied separately.It keeps attributing all changes(runoff,e.g.) to climate change,which may lead to wrong understanding of climate change impact assessment.Since without long enough historical series,impacts of climate variability have been always avoided deliberately.Aiming at this issue,this study proposed a type of simulation methodology,which could analyze the effect of climate natural variability by means of reproducing long series based on the baseline period resampling.The wide used time horizon(1961-1990) was selected as baseline period.Based on Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) technique,a block sampling approach was proposed for climate variability simulation.TOPMODEL(TOPography based hydrological MODEL) as a hydrological model was employed,while GLUE(Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) for hydrological model parameters calibration and uncertainty,and climate variability uncertainty was estimated.The results show that changes from climate variability has a comparable magnitude with that from climate change,which highlights the importance to separate impacts of climate variability from the total variation in assessing climate change,instead of attributing all changes to climate change solely. |
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| Keywords: | climate change climate natural variability block sampling simulation approach impact assessment uncertainty water resources |
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