| 水文集合预报试验及其研究进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 陆桂华,吴娟,吴志勇.水文集合预报试验及其研究进展[J].水科学进展,2012,23(5):728-734. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陆桂华 吴娟 吴志勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河海大学水文水资源学院, 江苏南京 210098;2. 河海大学水问题研究所, 江苏南京 210098 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41001012);全国优秀博士学位论文作者专项资金资助项目(201161)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 水文集合预报是一种既可以给出确定性预报值,又能提供预报值的不确定性信息的概率预报方法。简述了水文集合预报试验(Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment,HEPEX)国际计划的主要研究内容,回顾了HEPEX研究进展,分析了对水文预报发展有重要意义的3个HEPEX前沿研究:降尺度研究、集合预报系统研究以及不确定性研究。研究表明,动力-统计降尺度法和高分辨率"单一"模式及低分辨率集合相结合是HEPEX未来研究的方向。
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| 关 键 词： | 水文集合预报试验 不确定性 集合预报 降尺度 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011-12-02 |
Advances in hydrologic ensemble prediction experiment |
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| LU Gui-hua
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WU Juan
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WU Zhi-yong.Advances in hydrologic ensemble prediction experiment[J].Advances in Water Science,2012,23(5):728-734. |
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| Authors: | LU Gui-hua WU Juan WU Zhi-yong |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2. Institute of Water Problems, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China |
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| Abstract: | As a method for probabilistic forecasting,the hydrologic ensemble prediction provides deterministic forecast as well as uncertain information.The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment(HEPEX) is an international initiative to advance probabilistic hydrological forecast techniques for flood,drought and water management applications.We review three recent HEPEX researches on the downscaling,ensemble prediction system and associated uncertainty issues in an effort to provide a useful platform for the development of hydrological forecasting.The results demonstrate that the applicability of the dynamical-statistical downscaling,and combining high-resolution with ensemble modeling system into operational practices,are the main direction for HEPEX future research. |
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| Keywords: | hydrologic ensemble prediction experiment uncertainty ensemble prediction downscaling |
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