Uncertainties in hydrocarbon charge prediction |
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| Authors: | W Visser A Bell |
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| Institution: | Shell International Exploration and Production B.V., Research and Technical Services, Volmerlaan 8, P.O. Box 60, NL-2280 AB Rijswijk, The Netherlands Fax: +31 70 311 3110 E-mail: w.visser@siep.shell.com, NL
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| Abstract: | Computer simulations allow the prediction of hydrocarbon volumes, composition and charge timing in undrilled petroleum prospects. Whereas different models may give different hydrocarbon charge predictions, it has now become evident that a dominant cause of erroneous predictions is the poor quality of input data. The main culprit for prediction errors is the uncertainty in the initial hydrogen index (H/C) of the source rock. A 10% uncertainty in the H/C may lead to 50% error in the predicted hydrocarbon volumes, and associated gas–oil ratio. Similarly, uncertainties in the maximum burial temperature and the kinetics of hydrocarbon generation may lead to 20–50% error. Despite this, charge modelling can have great value for the ranking of prospects in the same area with comparable geological histories. |
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