Contribution of regional climate drivers to future winter sea-level changes in the Baltic Sea estimated by statistical methods and simulations of climate models |
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| Authors: | Birgit H??nicke |
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| Institution: | (1) Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centre, Max-Planck-Str. 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany |
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| Abstract: | A statistical downscaling approach is applied to the output of five different global climate model simulations driven by twenty-first
century future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. The contribution of sea-level pressure (SLP) and precipitation
changes to regional future winter sea-level changes is estimated for four Baltic sea-level stations by establishing statistical
relationships between sea level as predictand and large-scale climate fields as predictors. Using SLP as predictor for the
central and eastern Baltic Sea level stations, three climate models lead to statistically significant twenty-first century
future trends in the range of the order of 1–2 mm/year. Using precipitation as predictor for the stations in the southern
Baltic coast all five models lead to statistically significant trends with a range of the order of 0.4 mm/year. These numbers
are smaller, but of the order of magnitude as the predicted global sea-level rise. |
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