Stochastic Simulation Model for the Spatial Characterization of Lung Cancer Mortality Risk and Study of Environmental Factors |
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| Authors: | Ana Rita Oliveira Cristina Branquinho Maria Pereira Amílcar Soares |
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| Institution: | 1. CERENA, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001, Lisboa, Portugal
2. Centro de Biologia Ambiental, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016, Lisboa, Portugal
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| Abstract: | This paper presents a study in which the lung cancer risk in males was characterized based on a simulation model of mortality rates. Block sequential simulation of mortality rates, measured in counties of different sizes, was implemented and applied to a normal grid of continental Portugal with high spatial resolution. The uncertainty in the mortality rate measurements, directly related to differences in the population size of each county, was integrated in a block direct sequential simulation through Poisson kriging of local means and variances. Three age groups were examined: 50–59, 60–69, and 70–79 years. After the continuous geographic patterns of lung cancer risk were obtained, factors potentially associated with the main areas of risk were analyzed for southern Portugal. Thus, a defined class of land use and dry weather events, related to airborne particulate matter, were found to be associated with high-risk areas, resulting in high local spatial correlation patterns in all three age groups. |
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