Hoisting a Red Flag: An Early Warning System for Exceeding Subsidence Limits |
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| Authors: | M Nepveu I C Kroon P A Fokker |
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| Institution: | (1) Saratov State University, Astrakhanskaya Street 83, 410012 Saratov, Russia;(2) Russian Academy of Science, V.A. Kotel’nikov Institute of RadioEngineering and Electronics, Saratov Branch, Zelyonaya Str. 38, 410019 Saratov, Russia;; |
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| Abstract: | We present a general framework that enables decision-making when a threshold in a process is about to be exceeded (an event).
Measurements are combined with prior information to update the probability of such an event. This prior information is derived
from the results of an ensemble of model realisations that span the uncertainty present in the model before any measurements
are collected; only probability updates need to be calculated, which makes the procedure very fast once the basic ensemble
of realisations has been set up. The procedure is demonstrated with an example where gas field production is restricted to
a maximum amount of subsidence. Starting with 100 realisations spanning the prior uncertainty of the process, the measurements
collected during monitoring bolster some of the realisations and expose others as irrelevant. In this procedure, more data
will mean a sharper determination of the posterior probability. We show the use of two different types of limits, a maximum
allowed value of subsidence and a maximum allowed value of subsidence rate for all measurement points at all times. These
limits have been applied in real world cases. The framework is general and is able to deal with other types of limits in just
the same way. It can also be used to optimise monitoring strategies by assessing the effect of the number, position and timing
of the measurement points. Furthermore, in such a synthetic study, the prior realisations do not need to be updated; spanning
the range of uncertainty with appropriate prior models is sufficient. |
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