| 全球变化压力下中国东部样带植被与农业生态系统格局的可能性变化 |
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| 引用本文： | 彭少麟,赵平,任海,郑凤英.全球变化压力下中国东部样带植被与农业生态系统格局的可能性变化[J].地学前缘,2002,9(1):217-226. |
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| 作者姓名： | 彭少麟 赵平 任海 郑凤英 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院,华南植物研究所,广东,广州,510650中山大学,广东,广州,510275
2. 中国科学院,华南植物研究所,广东,广州,510650 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重大资助项目 (39899370 )，中国科学院重大资助项目 (KZ95 1 B1 110 )，广东省自然科学基金重大资助项目 ( 980 95 2 )，广东省自然科学基金团队资助项目 ( 0 0 30 31) |
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| 摘 要： | 在中国东部南北样带NSTEC大量实验数据的基础上 ,对热量梯度驱动下自然植被生态系统连续带的生产力变化进行模拟 ,对反映植被组成结构特征的生活型谱的变化 ,以及在全球变化平均温度可能增加的情况下 ,农业生态系统的生产格局的变化进行分析。在这一样带中 ,从南到北地带性植被有北热带季节雨林、南亚热带季风常绿阔叶林、中亚热带常绿阔叶林、北亚热带常绿落叶混交林、暖温带落叶阔叶林、温带针阔叶混交林和寒温带针叶林。模拟在温度增加 1℃的情况下生产力的变化 ;由南部的北热带季节雨林和南亚热带季风常绿阔叶林增加约 1%到温带针阔叶混交林和寒温带针叶林增加约 5 %～ 6 %,显示出生产力增加强度随纬度增大具一定相关关系。植被的物种结构变化比生产力变化缓慢得多。对样带的森林植被的生活型谱进行分析 ,表明其存在着 8种主要的生活谱结构类型。在平均温度增加的情况下 ,不同生活型谱结构的生态系统分布呈现向北扩展位移的趋势。在农业生态系统的格局中 ,在平均温度增加的情况下 ,南亚热带水稻三熟将不会季节太紧而有可能进行大面积三造生产。中亚热带双季稻连作一年三熟受低温影响减少。北亚热带一年二熟季节上有保证。暖温带许多地方能有二造收成。温带和寒温带的生产面积将有较大幅度的增加。总
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| 关 键 词： | 全球变化 中国东部样带 生产力格局 生活型谱结构 农业生产结构 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-2321(2002)01-0217-10 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年1月30日 |
THE POSSIBLE HEAT-DRIVEN PATTERN VARIATION OF ZONAL VEGETATION AND AGRICULTURAL ECOSYSTEMS ALONG THE NORTH-SOUTH TRANSECT OF CHINA UNDER THE GLOBAL CHANGE |
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| PENG Shao-lin ,ZHAO Ping ,REN Hai ,ZHENG Feng-ying.THE POSSIBLE HEAT-DRIVEN PATTERN VARIATION OF ZONAL VEGETATION AND AGRICULTURAL ECOSYSTEMS ALONG THE NORTH-SOUTH TRANSECT OF CHINA UNDER THE GLOBAL CHANGE[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2002,9(1):217-226. |
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| Authors: | PENG Shao-lin ZHAO Ping REN Hai ZHENG Feng-ying |
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| Institution: | PENG Shao-lin 1,2,ZHAO Ping 1,REN Hai 1,ZHENG Feng-ying 1 |
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| Abstract: | The North-South Transect of Eastern China (NSTEC), varying from south to north along the heat gradient, constitutes an unique and intact unbroken vegetative belt driven by heat gradient in the world. It includes major agriculture ecosystems and all types of latitude-zonal vegetation ecosystems within the controlled area of summer southeast monsoon in China. The vegetation, agriculture structure and its distribution pattern in space will be re-adjusted under the global change, which will affect both the division of vegetation into districts and the quantity and quality of regional food production. This change in natural and agricultural ecosystems will react to climatic change. This paper, based on plenty of experimental data, conducts simulations on productivity variation of the continuous belt of natural vegetation ecosystems driven by heat gradient, and on the production pattern and yield of agriculture ecosystems under the mean temperature increment of 1℃. In this transect, the zonal vegetation is distributed from south to north: north tropical seasonal rain forest, low subtropical evergreen broadleaf monsoon forest, mid-latitude subtropical evergreen broadleaf forest, high-latitude subtropical evergreen-deciduous forest, warm temperate deciduous broadleaf forest, temperate coniferous-broadleaf mixed forest and cold temperate coniferous forest. The simulations show that the increased productivity changed from 1% in the south to 5%～6% in the north when temperature was supposed to increase 1℃. The increment magnitude of productivity shows a fair correlation with the increasing latitude. The species composition of vegetation, however, changes more slowly than productivity.The pattern of agriculture ecosystem will also experience change as the mean temperature is supposed to increase. The production area of thrice-crop rice in north tropics and low subtropics would be enlarged due to the untighten seasonal timing.The impact of cold temperature on two consecutive cropping within a year in mid-latitude tropical area would be reduced and the two crops a year in high latitude would be secured. Many localities in warm temperate area would be expected to crop twice a year. The production areas both in temperate and cold temperate zones would be enlarged obviously. Generally speaking, the supposed temperature increment would increase total agricultural production, which would be beneficial to agriculture production within the transect region. |
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| Keywords: | global change North-South Transect of Eastern China productivity pattern structure of life form spectrum structure of agricultural production |
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