| 中国重要矿产资源的需求预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王高尚,韩梅.中国重要矿产资源的需求预测[J].地球学报,2002,23(6):483-490. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王高尚 韩梅 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心,北京,100037;中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心,北京,100037 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地质科学院地质调查项目“全球矿产资源战略研究及矿产资源年报”（DKD2002011） |
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| 摘 要： | 以往对矿产资源的中长期需求预测,大都基于纯数学模型或情景分析对已有数据的经验外推。由于缺乏对工业化过程矿产资源消费需求基本规律的把握,预测结果几乎无一例外地存在巨大偏差。笔者在深入分析工业化经济增长与矿产资源消费需求的相关关系、基本规律和模式的基础上,探讨了工业化过程中矿产资源消费从怎样的初始值通过什么样的方式到达多高的峰值,进而提取经济增长与矿产资源消费需求的模式参数,预测了中国未来30a能源、钢、铜、铝、锌的消费需求。
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| 关 键 词： | 矿产资源消费量 人均消费量 人均GDP 消费预测 中国 |
The Prediction of the Demand on Important Mineral Resources in China |
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| WANG Gao-shang and HAN Mei.The Prediction of the Demand on Important Mineral Resources in China[J].Acta Geoscientia Sinica,2002,23(6):483-490. |
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| Authors: | WANG Gao-shang and HAN Mei |
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| Institution: | Research Centre for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, CAGS, Beijing, 100037;Research Centre for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, CAGS, Beijing, 100037 |
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| Abstract: | An "S"pattern between metals per capita consumption and GDP and a linear pattern between energy per capita consumption and GDP were used to predict the consumption of energy,steel,copper,aluminum and zinc in China in the forthcoming 30 years. The factors for the predication were derived from the experience of the developed countries in 20th Century, from China in the past 30 years, and also from two assumptions of GDP growing. The predictive consumption is very large in 2020-2030,but remains 1/4 to 1/3 of the per capita consumption as compared with the developed countries in 2000. |
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| Keywords: | mineral consumption per capita consumption per capita GDP predication of the consumption China |
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