| 灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型在高速公路滑坡中的变形预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭江,王全才,程国平,陈剑.灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型在高速公路滑坡中的变形预测研究[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2016(1):86-90. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭江 王全才 程国平 陈剑 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 四川省地质矿产勘察开发局九〇九水文地质工程地质队,绵阳,621000;2. 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,成都,610041 |
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| 摘 要： | 传统GM(1,1)模型用于预测时,该模型在初始的少量数据中,才能充分利用有限的数据反映系统的发展变化,越往后监测,该模型的预测精度就越弱。而在实际应用中,必须不断考虑那些随时间相继进入系统的扰动或驱动因素,随时将每一个新得到的数据置入系统中,建立新信息GM(1,1)模型进行动态预测。因此,针对传统GM(1,1)模型存在的不足,文章建立了灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)滑坡预测模型,并利用该模型对巴达高速公路滑坡位移变形进行了预测。结果表明,灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型精度较高,预测误差较小,有很好的工程应用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 滑坡 灰色系统理论 变形预测 新陈代谢G M(1 1)模型 |
RESEARCH ON DEFORMATION PREDICTION OF LANDSLIDE IN HIGHWAY WITH GREY METABOLIC GM (1,1)MODEL |
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| Abstract: | When conventional GM(1,1)model is used to predict,The model can make full use of the limited data to reflect the development and change of the system with initial small amounts of data.For more backward monitoring,The prediction accu-racy of the model is weaker.And in practical application,we must consider the disturbance or the driving factor of the system, put every new data into the system in any time,establish a new GM(1,1)model to predict the deformation.Therefore,in view of the shortcomings of the conventional GM(1,1)model,this paper establish the grey metabolic GM(1,1)landslide prediction model,and use the model to predict the deformation of highway Bada.The results show that the gray metabolism GM (1 ,1 ) model has a higher precision and less prediction error,and has good engineering application value. |
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| Keywords: | landslide grey system theory deformation prediction metabolic GM(1 1)model |
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