| GM（1，1）动态模型在吴江市地下水水位预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘洪,孙国曦,曹瑞祥.GM（1，1）动态模型在吴江市地下水水位预测中的应用[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2008,19(3):47-51. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘洪 孙国曦 曹瑞祥 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]江苏省地质调查研究院,南京210018 |
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| 摘 要： | 以吴江市地下水水位预测为例，详细阐述了地下水水位时间序列的GM（1，1）动态模型的原理和建立过程，并根据模型的预测值和实测值，对模型的精度进行了检验，结果表明，模型的预测精度达到了99．27％，等级属于Ⅰ级，具有实际的应用价值，为地下水资源的科学管理提供了依据。
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| 关 键 词： | GM(1 1)动态模型 地下水位 预测 吴江市 |
THE APPLICATION OF GM(1,1)DYNAMIC MODEL IN THE FORECAST OF GROUNDWATER LEVEL IN WUJIANG CITY |
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| LIU Hong,SUN Guo-xi,CAO Rui-xiang.THE APPLICATION OF GM(1,1)DYNAMIC MODEL IN THE FORECAST OF GROUNDWATER LEVEL IN WUJIANG CITY[J].Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation,2008,19(3):47-51. |
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| Authors: | LIU Hong SUN Guo-xi CAO Rui-xiang |
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| Institution: | LIU Hong, SUN Guo-xi, CAO Rui-xiang (Geological Survey of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210018,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on Grey system theory, this paper elaborated how to construct the GM（1,1） dynamic model of groundwater level time sequences in detail, and took the Wujiang city groundwater level as example. By comparing the real value and prediction value, the paper checked the forecast precision of model, and the results showed that the forecast precision of GM（1,1） dynamic model was 99.27%, reaching to the first degree, with practical application value, and would provide the foundation for groundwater resource scientific management. |
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| Keywords: | GM（1 1） dynamic model groundwater level forecast Wujiang city |
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