| 基于GM(1,1)优化模型的岩石边坡变形预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 巫德斌,徐卫亚.基于GM(1,1)优化模型的岩石边坡变形预报[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2002,13(4):60-63. |
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| 作者姓名： | 巫德斌 徐卫亚 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学岩土工程研究所,南京,210098 |
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| 摘 要： | 岩石边坡系统是一典型灰色系统，其变形发展过程可以用灰色预测模型完成。尽管传统GM（1，1）模型预测有很多成功的实例，但是也存在一些预测偏差过大的情况，必须对其进行优化。逐步迭代法GM（1，1）模型不仅收敛速度快，而且与原始数据库序列的凹凸性保护一致。利用自编的计算程序对马步坎边坡预测测点G1沉降和开裂进行预测分析，结果表明逐步迭代法GM（1，1）优化模型计算精度较传统GM（1，1）模型和背景构造法GM（1，1）优化模型高，较好地反映了岩石边坡的变形趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 岩石边坡变形 灰色系统 GM（1 1）模型 背景构造法 逐步迭代法 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-4362(2002)04-0060-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年6月3日 |
FORECASTING OF ROCK SLOPE DISPLACEMENT BASED ON GM(1,1)OPTIMIZED MODEL |
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| WU De-bin,XU Wei-ya.FORECASTING OF ROCK SLOPE DISPLACEMENT BASED ON GM(1,1)OPTIMIZED MODEL[J].Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation,2002,13(4):60-63. |
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| Authors: | WU De-bin XU Wei-ya |
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| Abstract: | Rock slope system is defined as a typical gray system, whose development of displacement can be modeled by the gray forecasting model. Although there have been many successful examples of the original GM(1,1) model, the cases of excessive forecasting errors are also existed. Therefore, it must be optimized. Speedup convergence of the step-by-step iterative method of GM(1,1) optimal model is defined, the concave-concave-convex features of which are well coincided with the original data sequence. The settling-volumes and fissuring-volumes of the observational point G1 in the Mabukan rock slope are predicted and analyzed by using self-programmed procedure. It can be concluded that the calculating precision of the step-by step iterative method of GM(1,1) optimal model is better than that of both the original GM (1,1) model and the background value structure method of GM(1,1) optimal model. The displacement trend of the rock slope is better defined. |
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| Keywords: | rock slope displacement gray system GM(1 1) model background value structure method step-by-step iterative method |
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