A new methodology for building local climate change scenarios: A case study of monthly temperature projections for Mexico City |
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| Institution: | Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Circuito de la Investigación Científica s/n, Ciudad Universitaria, 04510 México, D.F. Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelalaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands;Departamento de Estadística, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM), Río Hondo 1, Col. Progreso Tizapán, 01080 México, D.F |
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| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new methodology for generating climate change scenarios at the local scale based on multivariate time series models and restricted forecasting techniques. This methodology offers considerable advantages over the current statistical downscaling techniques such as: (i) it provides a better representation of climate at the local scale; (ii) it avoids the occurrence of spurious relationships between the large and local scale variables; (iii) it offers a more appropriate representation of variability in the downscaled scenarios; and (iv) it allows for compatibility assessment and combination of the information contained in both observed and simulated climate variables. Furthermore, this methodology is useful for integrating scenarios of local scale factors that affect local climate. As such, the convenience of different public policies regarding, for example, land use change or atmospheric pollution control can be evaluated in terms of their effects for amplifying or reducing climate change impacts. |
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| Keywords: | Compatibility testing downscaling techniques multiple time series models restricted forecasts statistical model validation climate change |
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