| 基于多元线性回归分析的页岩气有利区评价新方法——以上扬子地区五峰组—龙马溪组海相页岩为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 周业鑫,赵安坤,余谦,张娣,张茜,雷子慧.基于多元线性回归分析的页岩气有利区评价新方法——以上扬子地区五峰组—龙马溪组海相页岩为例[J].沉积与特提斯地质,2021,41(3):387-397. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周业鑫 赵安坤 余谦 张娣 张茜 雷子慧 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地质调查局成都地质调查中心, 四川 成都 610081;2. 自然资源部沉积盆地与油气资源重点实验室, 四川 成都 610081;3. 四川大学文学与新闻学院, 四川 成都 610064 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重大科技专项（2016ZX05034004-001） |
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| 摘 要： | 本文以四川盆地及其周缘五峰组-龙马溪组页岩气评价为例，总结了页岩气有利区优选的储层参数、保存参数和压力系数等参数，量化了各关键参数平面分布，运用多元线性回归分析方法计算了参数权重，通过多参数加权叠加公式建立了多元线性回归模型：有利区=-0.317+0.75×埋深+0.285×TOC+0.148×RO+0.093×孔隙度-0.128×渗透率+0.201×脆性矿物-0.199×压力系数，并开展了定量化优选评价页岩气有利区工作。分析结果表明，各参数权重由大到小排序为：埋深、TOC、脆性矿物和压力系数、RO、孔隙度、渗透率，代表对含气性的影响作用依次减小。经过量化优选的有利区主要集中于四川盆地内，包括威远-自贡一线、宜宾-泸州-涪陵一线和川东区域为主，盆外的昭通、金沙、道真和黔江区域为相对有利区。该预测评价结果与四川盆地页岩气勘探实际基本相符，有利区表现形式较传统综合地质方法更清晰、直观。
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| 关 键 词： | 多元线性回归 有利区评价 五峰组-龙马溪组 上扬子地区 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/11/23 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021/4/12 0:00:00 |
A new method for evaluating favorable shale gas exploration areas based on multi-linear regression analysis: A case study of marine shales of Wufeng-Longmaxi Formations, Upper Yangtze Region |
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| ZHOU Yexin,ZHAO Ankun,YU Qian,ZHANG Di,ZHANG Qian,LEI Zihui.A new method for evaluating favorable shale gas exploration areas based on multi-linear regression analysis: A case study of marine shales of Wufeng-Longmaxi Formations, Upper Yangtze Region[J].Sedimentary Geology and Tethyan Geology,2021,41(3):387-397. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Yexin ZHAO Ankun YU Qian ZHANG Di ZHANG Qian LEI Zihui |
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| Institution: | 1. Chengdu Center, China Geological Survey, Chengdu 610081, China;2. Key Laboratory of Sedimentary Basin and Oil and Gas Resources, Ministry of Natural Resources, Chengdu 610081, China;3. The College of Literature and Journalism of Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper has summarized the plane distribution characteristics of shale gas reservoir parameters, preservation parameters and pressure coefficient parameters of Wufeng-Longmaxi Formations in Sichuan Basin and its periphery. The ichnography of key-controlling parameters has been mapped and converted into data set. The multiple linear regression analysis has been applied to calculate the weight of each parameter and establish the corresponding multi-parameter weighted equation:Favorable area=-0.317+0.75×Buried depth+0.285×TOC+ 0.148×RO+0.093×Porosity-0.128×Permeability+0.201×Brittle minerals-0.199×Pressure coefficient,to quantitatively screen, the favorable areas for shale gas exploration. The results show that the weights of parameters ranking from large to small are buried depth, TOC, brittle minerals, pressure coefficient, RO, porosity and permeability, which represent the influence on shale gas bearing property. The quantitatively selected favorable areas are mainly concentrated in the Sichuan Basin, including the Weiyuan-Zigong, Yibin-Luzhou-Fuling and Eastern Sichuan area, while the Zhaotong, Jinsha, Daozhen and Qianjiang areas outside the basin are relatively favorable areas. The results are consistent with industrial exploration of Sichuan basin and its periphery. Compared to traditional methods, this quantitative screening method in this study is clearer and more intuitive. |
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| Keywords: | multiple linear regression analysis favorable area evaluation Wufeng-Longmaxi Formation Upper Yangtze region |
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