| 趋势变异条件下非一致性洪水频率计算方法的择优比较分析——以洞庭湖区弥陀寺站为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 宁迈进,孙思瑞,吴子怡,谢平,周慧,王路,陈柯兵,岳启蒙.趋势变异条件下非一致性洪水频率计算方法的择优比较分析——以洞庭湖区弥陀寺站为例[J].水文,2019,39(6):14-19. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宁迈进 孙思瑞 吴子怡 谢平 周慧 王路 陈柯兵 岳启蒙 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.湖南省水文水资源勘测局2.长江委水文局长江中游水文水资源勘测局3.武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室4.华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(51579181,91547205)；湖南省水利科技项目(湘水科计【2015】13-21)； |
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| 摘 要： | 受到全球气候变化和大规模人类活动等变化环境的影响,特别是长江三峡水库、葛洲坝电站等大型水电工程的兴建,洞庭湖区各站点的洪水序列发生了变异,并引发了洪水频率分布的非一致性问题。以洞庭湖区内弥陀寺站为例,采用线性趋势、非线性趋势、小波分析及希尔伯特-黄变换四种考虑趋势变异的非一致性洪水频率计算方法推求了年最大洪峰流量的频率分布,并进行了四种方法的择优比较分析。结果显示弥陀寺站年最大洪峰流量序列的均值存在显著下降趋势变异,四种方法推求的过去和现状条件下频率曲线的差异较小,而对未来时期的预测差异较大;经择优度计算与比较分析,基于非线性趋势方法所得结果为最优,且进一步得出年最大洪峰流量的频率分布在过去、现状和未来三个时期存在显著的差异,将直接影响洞庭湖区内弥陀寺站附近堤防的安全评价和区域防洪规划。
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| 关 键 词： | 非一致性 频率计算 水文序列 洞庭湖 变异 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/7/30 0:00:00 |
Comparative Analysis of Inconsistent Hydrological Frequency Calculation Methods Based on TrendAlteration: Taking Mituosi Station in Dongting Lake Area as a Case |
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| NING Maijin,SUN Sirui,WU Ziyi,XIE Ping,ZHOU Hui,WANG Lu,CHEN Kebing,YUE Qimeng.Comparative Analysis of Inconsistent Hydrological Frequency Calculation Methods Based on TrendAlteration: Taking Mituosi Station in Dongting Lake Area as a Case[J].Hydrology,2019,39(6):14-19. |
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| Authors: | NING Maijin SUN Sirui WU Ziyi XIE Ping ZHOU Hui WANG Lu CHEN Kebing YUE Qimeng |
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| Institution: | 1. Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Hunan Province, Changsha 410007, China;2. Middle Yangtze River Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources Survey, CWRC, Wuhan 430012, China;3. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;4. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China |
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| Abstract: | Due to the climate change and large-scale human activities, especially the environmental changes caused by building thelarge hydropwoer projects such as the Three Gorges Reservoir and Gezhouba Hydropower Station, the flood series in the DongtingLake area has altered, which resulted in the non-stationary flood series distribution. Taking the Mituosi Station in the DongtingLake area as a case, This paper applied four inconsistent hydrological frequency calculation methods including the linear tendencyanalysis, non-linear tendency analysis, wavelet analysis and Hilbert-Huang transform to calculate the frequency distribution of theannual maximum peak discharge at the station, and made a merit-based comparative analysis. The results show that the mean val -ues of the annual maximum peak discharge series have declined significantly. The difference of the frequency curves calculated bythe four methods is relatively small in the past and current conditions while that of the prediction for the future is quite great. Afterthe calculation of preferred degree and comparative analysis, the results are optimal based on the nonlinear trend method. Fur -thermore, it finds out that there is significant difference in the frequency distribution of the annual maximum peak discharge underthe past, current and future conditions, which would directly affect the safety assessment of the embankments near the Mituosi sta -tion and regional flood control planning. |
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| Keywords: | inconsistency frequency calculation hydrological series Dongting Lake alteration |
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