| 近60年淮河流域夏季降水的变化特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯志刚,梁树献,徐胜,徐时进,李文杰.近60年淮河流域夏季降水的变化特征[J].水文,2019,39(6):85-89. |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯志刚 梁树献 徐胜 徐时进 李文杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 淮河水利委员会 |
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| 基金项目： | 十三五国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402703,2017YFC0405601)； |
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| 摘 要： | 利用淮河流域1961～2017年夏季降水量资料,运用线性回归、滑动平均、Morlet小波、滑动T检验和Lepage检验方法分析了流域夏季降水的周期性特征和年代际变化特征。结果表明:流域夏季降水在大部分时段都具有明显的年际振荡特征,从20世纪90年代开始年代际振荡特征非常突出;流域夏季降水具有2～3a的年际变化周期和18～24a的年代际变化周期,1961～1967年、1997～2006年期间2～3a的短周期振荡非常显著,1990年以后18～24a的周期变得非常明显;在2000年前后,流域33～35°N纬向带状区域发生了显著的年代际突变现象,突变后与之前相比夏季降水增多了40%～60%;在2009年,流域沿淮河一线以北至35°N范围内再次发生显著的年代际突变现象,突变后降水减少了20%以上,此次年代际突变范围更广也更加显著,其物理成因值得进一步研究。
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| 关 键 词： | 淮河流域 夏季降水 周期性 突变性 Lepage检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/11/21 0:00:00 |
Variation Characteristics of Summer Precipitation in Huaihe River Basin in Recent 60 Years |
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| FENG Zhigang,LIANG Shuxian,XU Sheng,XU Shijin,LI Wenjie.Variation Characteristics of Summer Precipitation in Huaihe River Basin in Recent 60 Years[J].Hydrology,2019,39(6):85-89. |
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| Authors: | FENG Zhigang LIANG Shuxian XU Sheng XU Shijin LI Wenjie |
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| Abstract: | Based on the summer precipitation data of the Huaihe River Basin during 1961-2017, the periodic characteristics andinter-decadal variability of summer precipitation were analyzed by using linear regression, Morlet wavelet analysis, moving T testand Lepage test. The results indicate that summer precipitation shows obvious inter-annual oscillation during most periods, and theinter-decadal variation becomes notable from the 1990s. The summer precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin has an inter-annualoscillation period of 2-3 years and an inter-decadal oscillation period of 18-24 years. The small-scale of 2-3 years is remarkableduring 1961 -1967 and 1997 -2006 and the large -scale of 18 -24 years becomes obvious after 1990. A remarkable increase ofsummer precipitation in the zonal region between 33°N and 35°N in the Huaihe River Basin occurred around 2000, and therainfall increased by 40%-60%. The inter-decadal changes of summer precipitation happenned again around 2009 over the zonalregion between the Huaihe River and 35°N, and the rainfall decreased more than 20%. The latest climatic shift is more remarkableand exhibits over larger area, moreover the physical causes deserve more deeply research. |
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| Keywords: | Huaihe River Basin summer precipitation periodic characteristics abrupt change Lepage Test |
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