| 气候变化与人类活动对太湖西苕溪流域水文水资源影响甄别 |
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| 引用本文： | 邱玲花,彭定志,林荷娟,张明月,房晶.气候变化与人类活动对太湖西苕溪流域水文水资源影响甄别[J].水文,2015,35(1):45-50. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邱玲花 彭定志 林荷娟 张明月 房晶 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学水科学研究院;水利部太湖流域管理局 |
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| 基金项目： | “十二五”国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2012BAC21B02) |
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| 摘 要： | 采用累积距平曲线与Mann-Kendall法对太湖西苕溪流域降水、潜在蒸散发和径流序列进行趋势分析。结果表明,流域径流与潜在蒸散发在95%的置信水平下为下降趋势,而降水无显著变化趋势。为定量甄别气候变化与人类活动对流域水文过程的影响,探寻流域水文变化的主要驱动因素,采用敏感性系数法与改进前后的双累积曲线法分析了气候变化与人类活动对太湖西苕溪流域1972~2010年水文过程的影响。结果表明,气候变化与人类活动对流域径流变化影响的贡献分别为37%~42%和58%~63%,人类活动影响大于气候变化。
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| 关 键 词： | 西苕溪 气候变化 人类活动 敏感性系数法 双累积曲线法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014/4/1 0:00:00 |
Quantitative Discrimination of Climate Change and Human Activities Impacting on Runoff in Xitiaoxi River Basin |
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| QIU Linghu,PENG Dingzhi,LIN Hejuan,ZHANG Mingyue,FANG Jin.Quantitative Discrimination of Climate Change and Human Activities Impacting on Runoff in Xitiaoxi River Basin[J].Hydrology,2015,35(1):45-50. |
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| Authors: | QIU Linghu PENG Dingzhi LIN Hejuan ZHANG Mingyue FANG Jin |
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| Institution: | QIU Linghua;PENG Dingzhi;LIN Hejuan;ZHANG Mingyue;FANG Jin;College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University;Bureau of Taihu Lake Basin; |
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| Abstract: | Cumulative anomaly curve and Mann-Kendall methods were utilized to do trend analysis of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and runoff in the Xitiaoxi catchment of the Taihu Lake Basin. The results indicate that the runoff and potential evapotranspiration tend to decrease and precipitation occur without significant trend under the 95% confidence level. As to quantitatively discern the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological processes and detect the dominated driving force of hydrological variation, hydrological sensitivitybased method and double mass curve method with original and modified one were applied to distinguish the interference of climate change and human activities to hydrological processes in the basin during 1972~2010. It demonstrated that climate change and human activities contributed 37%~42% and 58%~63% to runoff variation in the basin, showing larger influence of human activities than that of climate change. |
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| Keywords: | Xitiaoxi River climate change human activity hydrological sensitivity-based method double mass curve method |
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