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| 城市水资源供需平衡及预测分析——以开封市为例 | |
| 引用本文： | 赵军凯,赵秉栋,李九发,韩志刚,荣晓明.城市水资源供需平衡及预测分析——以开封市为例[J].水文,2009,29(6). |
| 作者姓名： | 赵军凯 赵秉栋 李九发 韩志刚 荣晓明 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 华东师范大学河口海岸国家重点实验室,上海,200062 2. 河南大学中澳地理信息分析与应用研究所,河南,开封,475004 3. 河南省开封水文水资源勘测局,河南,开封,475001 |
| 摘 要： | 运用水资源供需平衡的基本理论,以中型城市开封市为例,借助灰色系统原理,采用定性与定量相结合的方法,在对开封市水资源供需平衡分析的基础上进行预测.通过对开封市现状年供水量与需水量统计分析,确认在超采地下水的状况下才达到该城水资源供需基本平衡.基于不同时期城市未来年份社会经济发展的预测,考虑节水技术提高和先进节水措施的应用,结合对水资源供需量的趋势分析,预测结果为2010年余水,2020年缺水,表明未来开封市水资源紧缺成为社会经济发展的"瓶颈". |
| 关 键 词： | 水资源 平衡分析 供需预测 开封市 |
Analysis of Water Balance and Predection of Water Demand and Supply in Kaifeng City |
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| ZHAO Jun-kai,ZHAO Bing-dong,LI Jiu-fa,HAN Zhi-gang,RONG Xiao-ming.Analysis of Water Balance and Predection of Water Demand and Supply in Kaifeng City[J].Hydrology,2009,29(6). | |
| Authors: | ZHAO Jun-kai ZHAO Bing-dong LI Jiu-fa HAN Zhi-gang RONG Xiao-ming |
| Abstract: | The theory of water balance between demand and supply was applied in this paper.By using qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, and with the aid of computer technology,grey system theory,demand and supply of water resources in Kaifeng City was forecasted and discussed.Through analyzing the water quantity of demand and supply status in quo of Kaifeng City,it was concluded that the water balance between demand and supply could not be achieved in this city unless the groundwater is over exploited. Different blue prints of development of Kaifeng's society and economy were designed,improvement of saving water technology and application of advanced saving water countermeasures were considered,and the trend of water quantity of demand and supply was analyzed in this paper. The conclusion was made that there would be surplus water in the year of 2010 and it would be short of water in the year of 2020,which reflects that water resources will be a "bottle-neck"of development of society and economy in Kaifeng City in the coming years. |
| Keywords: | water resources balance analysis water demand and supply forecasting Kaifeng City |
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