| 洪水影响预报和风险预警理念与业务实践 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘志雨.洪水影响预报和风险预警理念与业务实践[J].水文,2020,40(1):1-6. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘志雨 |
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| 作者单位： | 水利部信息中心（水利部水文水资源监测预报中心），北京100053 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目“中小河流洪水防控与应急管理关键技术研究与示范”（2018YFC1508100；2018YFC1508103） |
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| 摘 要： | 我国是世界上洪涝灾害频繁而严重的国家之一,洪水预报预警是防汛减灾工作中重要的非工程措施和洪水防御工作的耳目和参谋。从水文行业的视角,回顾了近年来我国洪水预报预警技术与业务进展,分析了当前洪水预报预警工作面临的新形势和新要求,对比国内外同类行业发展查找了存在的差距,阐述了洪水影响预报和风险预警的定义和理念,从顶层对基于影响预报和风险预警的新一代洪水预报预警系统("国家洪水预报预警系统")总体框架进行了研究和设计,一些关键技术成果在大范围洪水早期预警业务实践中得到了探索应用,取得了较好的效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 洪涝灾害 影响预报 风险预警 理念 实践 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/11/6 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/2/16 0:00:00 |
Concept and Practice of Impact-based Flood Forecasting and Risk-based Flood Warning |
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| LIU Zhiyu.Concept and Practice of Impact-based Flood Forecasting and Risk-based Flood Warning[J].Hydrology,2020,40(1):1-6. |
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| Authors: | LIU Zhiyu |
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| Institution: | Information Center (Hydrology Monitor and Forecast Center),,MWR, Beijing 100053, China |
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| Abstract: | China is one of the most frequent and serious countries prone to flood disaster in the world. Flood forecast and warning is an important non-structural measure in flood control and disaster reduction, playing the role of ears and eyes. From the view of hydrology section, this paper reviewed the progress of flood forecast and warning techniques and the new demand and situation confronting in China, identified the gaps between China and abroad through the comparison of similar fileds, and illustrated the concept and definition of impact-based flood forecasting and risk-based flood warning. In this paper, the overall design of the new generation of flood forecast and warning system was introduced, and some key techniques were applied in early-warning practice over a large scale, which has returned satisfied results. |
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| Keywords: | flood disaster impact-based forecasting risk-based warning concept practice |
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