| PMP估算中大气可降水量计算方法的探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈宏,林炳章,张叶晖.PMP估算中大气可降水量计算方法的探讨[J].水文,2014,34(3):1-5. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈宏 林炳章 张叶晖 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.南京信息工程大学水文气象学院2.南京信息工程大学大气科学学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 水利部公益性行业专项经费基金资助项目(20111033)； |
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| 摘 要： | 可降水量是估算可能最大降水(PMP)的一个重要中间量。为验证不同方法推求可降水量的准确性,利用1998~2010年东南沿海五省(自治区)及香港地区共13个探空站和地面露点资料,分别采用3种不同方法(探空法、经验公式法和假绝热法)计算各站的大气可降水量,并对三种估算方法的结果进行比较。结果表明:经验公式法求得可降水量最小,探空法次之,假绝热法求得结果最大,偏差随着纬度变化。纬度越低,假绝热法推求的可降水量相对误差越大,且在有降水日时的偏差更为明显;经验公式法和假绝热法得到的结果均与探空法的可降水量相关性较强;三种求算方法得到的大气可降水量年内变化基本一致。建议在PMP估算中,利用地面最大12 h持续露点温度通过假绝热法推求可降水量时,应考虑纬度校正。
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| 关 键 词： | 大气可降水量 探空法 假绝热 PMP |
| 收稿时间： | 2013/10/15 0:00:00 |
Comparison of Calculation Methods for Estimating Atmospheric Precipitable Water in Estimation of PMP |
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| CHEN Hong,LIN Bingzhang,ZHANG Yehui.Comparison of Calculation Methods for Estimating Atmospheric Precipitable Water in Estimation of PMP[J].Hydrology,2014,34(3):1-5. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Hong LIN Bingzhang ZHANG Yehui |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Hydrometeorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 2. College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China |
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| Abstract: | Precipitable water is an important intermediate parameter to estimate the probable maximum precipitation. In order to verify the accuracy of different methods for precipitable water estimation, radiosonde data and ground dew point temperature data at 13 stations in SE China coast region during 1998-2010 have been used to compare the precipitable water estimated by 3 methods, which are the specific humidity stratification integral, the surface dew point empirical formula method and the pseudo adiabatic calculation method, respectively. These stations are located in the five coastal provinces (region) of SE China and Hong Kong. The results show that the precipitable water calculated through the surface dew point method is the smallest, while the estimation through pseudo adiabatic method is the largest. The bias varies with latitude, the latitude is lower, the larger relative error. This bias is more obvious in the rainy days. The results of precipitable water by using ground method and pseudo adiabatic method both have strong correlations with the one based on specific humidity stratification integral method. The temporal variations of the atmo - spheric precipitation estimated by the three methods are consistent. This paper suggests that, in estimation of PMP in terms of moisture maximization, when the atmospheric precipitable water is calculated via pseudo adiabatic method based on the maximum 12-hour persisting surface dew point, a correction of latitude-induced difference should be taken into account. |
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| Keywords: | atmospheric precipitable water radiosonde data pseudo adiabatic method PMP |
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