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| 基于灰色-马尔科夫预测模型的巢湖流域洪涝灾害预测研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 李祥,王心源,李玉龙,张广胜,章敏.基于灰色-马尔科夫预测模型的巢湖流域洪涝灾害预测研究[J].水文,2006,26(4):43-46,54. |
| 作者姓名： | 李祥 王心源 李玉龙 张广胜 章敏 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 安徽师范大学,国土资源与旅游学院遥感实验室,安徽,芜湖,241000 2. 安徽师范大学,国土资源与旅游学院遥感实验室,安徽,芜湖,241000;中国科技大学,地球与空间科学系,安徽,合肥,230026 3. 中国地质调查局发展研究中心,北京,100083 4. 安徽省绩溪县东山中学,安徽,绩溪,245300 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;安徽省自然科学基金;福建省自然科学基金 |
| 摘 要： | 针对灰色预测与马尔科夫链预测的优点和不足。提出基于灰色一马尔科夫洪灾发生年份预测,以巢湖流域为例,对模型进行实例验证和应用。研究结果表明：将灰色系统GM(1．1)预测模型与马尔柯夫链预测方法结合起来应用,为认识水文规律提供了一条新途径；灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型与马尔柯夫链预测方法结合起来应用是建立在历史数据统计分析基础上的,两者的结合可以避免考虑其他多种影响因素,具有较大的科学性和实用性,预测精度高,其预测结果更可靠；本文研究的洪涝灾害发生年份的预测模型与方法,具有较强的理论和实际意义,可供有关部门与气象台站参考使用。 |
| 关 键 词： | 灰色预测 马尔科夫链 模型 洪涝灾害 巢湖流域 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0852（2006）04-0043-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-11-09 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-11-09 |
Forecasting Flood Disasters in the Chaohu Lake Basin Based on Grey-Markov Theory |
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| LI Xiang,WANG Xin-yuan,LI Yu-long,ZHANG Guang-Sheng,ZHANG Min.Forecasting Flood Disasters in the Chaohu Lake Basin Based on Grey-Markov Theory[J].Hydrology,2006,26(4):43-46,54. | |
| Authors: | LI Xiang WANG Xin-yuan LI Yu-long ZHANG Guang-Sheng ZHANG Min |
| Institution: | 1. Laboratory of RS Application of College of National Territorial Resource and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, China; 2. School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China; 3. Center of Reseacch and Development, China Geological Survey, Beijing 100083, China; 4. Dongshan Middle School in Jixi County of A nhui Province, Jixi 245300, China |
| Abstract: | Grey-Markov forecasting floods is presented and the corresponding model is applied and tested with the Chaohu Lake Basin as the study area.The result shows that combination of the grey system GM (1,1) forecasting model with Markov Chain is a new way for understanding water rule.Grey System GM (1,1) Forecasting Model and Markov Chain is combined based on statistic analysis,with which the other influence factors will not be considered.Therefore,the forecasting results will be more accurate. |
| Keywords: | grey forecasting Markov Chain model flood disaster the Chaohu Lake Basin |
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