| 洪水预报模型输入与输出的误差分布及相关性分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张 琳,王国利.洪水预报模型输入与输出的误差分布及相关性分析[J].水文,2022,42(1):23-28. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张 琳 王国利 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 大连理工大学水利工程学院 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFC0400903);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51779030,51709108)。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 降雨预报信息作为洪水预报模型的输入,该信息的准确性直接影响洪水预报模型输出的准确性.为探究模型输入(降雨预报)误差与输出(洪水预报)误差之间的关系,以英那河流域为例,分析了不同雨量等级下,预报模型的输入误差与输出误差的分布规律,并定性分析了两种误差的相关关系.结果表明,降雨量等级若为无雨及小雨时,两种误差不相关;若为中...
|
| 关 键 词： | 相关分析 降雨预报 洪水预报 模型输入 模型输出 |
Analysis on Error Distributions of Input Data and Output Data of Flood Forecasting Model and Its Correlation |
| |
| ZHANG Lin,WANG Guoli.Analysis on Error Distributions of Input Data and Output Data of Flood Forecasting Model and Its Correlation[J].Hydrology,2022,42(1):23-28. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHANG Lin WANG Guoli |
| |
| Institution: | (School of Hydraulic Engineering Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | The rainfall forecast information as the key input data of the flood forecasting model has a great effect on the output data.To explore the relationship between input and output errors,this paper analyzed the distribution of input error(rainfall forecast error)and output error of flood forecasting model under different amounts of rainfall and its correlation in the Yingna River basin.The results show that the two errors are uncorrelated when rainfall grades are no rain and light,and while they are positive correlation when rainfall grade is moderate above.Besides,the correlation error domain between input error and output error under the different confidence levels is obtained by using the confidence estimation method.The research method can serve for the study of flood forecasting scheme and the feasibility analysis of reservoir flood control forecasting operation method,and provide a basis for risk analysis of flood control operation decision. |
| |
| Keywords: | correlation analysis rainfall forecast flood forecast model input model output |
| 本文献已被 维普 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《水文》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《水文》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
