| 基于权马尔可夫链模型的庐江县降水量预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 韩璞璞,张生,李畅游,张俊.基于权马尔可夫链模型的庐江县降水量预测[J].水文,2012,32(3):38-42. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 韩璞璞 张生 李畅游 张俊 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院,内蒙古呼和浩特,010018 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 由于降水过程的随机性与不确定性,使得降水量预测存在一定的难度。对安徽省庐江县1952~2009年逐年降水资料进行了分析,采用样本-标准差分级法将这58年的逐年降水量序列分为枯水年,偏枯水年,平水年,偏丰水年,丰水年5个状态,采用权马尔可夫链模型预测了2010年的降水量,预测结果与实测结果相吻合。
|
| 关 键 词： | 权马尔可夫链 降水量预测 标准差分级法 庐江县 |
Annual Precipitation Prediction for Lujiang County Based on Weighted Markov Chain |
| |
| HAN Pupu
,
ZHANG Sheng
,
LI Changyou
,
ZHANG Jun.Annual Precipitation Prediction for Lujiang County Based on Weighted Markov Chain[J].Hydrology,2012,32(3):38-42. |
| |
| Authors: | HAN Pupu ZHANG Sheng LI Changyou ZHANG Jun |
| |
| Institution: | (College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | The annual precipitation in Lujiang County from 1952 to 2009 was analyzed.The precipitation data series were divided into five states from the lowest to the highest according to the standard deviation classification method.Weighted Markov chain model was applied to predict the annual precipitation for the year of 2010.The results show that the monitored precipitation is sited within the modeled range. |
| |
| Keywords: | Markov chain model prediction of precipitation SD classification Lujiang County |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
