| 影响太湖流域的台风演变规律分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 崔婷婷,王银堂,刘勇,王宗志.影响太湖流域的台风演变规律分析[J].水文,2012,32(2):54-58. |
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| 作者姓名： | 崔婷婷 王银堂 刘勇 王宗志 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029;河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098
2. 南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京,210029 |
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| 基金项目： | 水利部科技推广计划项目(TG1007,TG1109) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于台风发源地、运动路径,以及对太湖流域影响范围、降雨量等特征的分析,提出影响太湖流域台风的刻画标准。据此从1949～2010年的台风资料中遴选出230场影响太湖流域的台风。采用非参数统计、累积距平曲线及Morlet连续小波分析等方法,剖析影响太湖流域台风的频次、年内最早及最晚影响时间等参数的趋势、突变和周期性,并分析了台风与ENSO现象的关系。结果表明:影响太湖流域台风的频次和最早影响时间变化的趋势性不显著,而最晚影响时间则有显著推后的趋势;台风频次的变化呈现"少-多-少-多"波动时演变特性,并可能存在21～22a、6～8a的振荡周期;研究对太湖流域防洪减灾具有一定的指导意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 太湖流域 台风演变规律 ENSO |
Analysis of Change Trend of Typhoon Impacting Taihu Lake Basin |
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| CUI Tingting
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WANG Yintang
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LIU Yong
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WANG Zongzhi.Analysis of Change Trend of Typhoon Impacting Taihu Lake Basin[J].Hydrology,2012,32(2):54-58. |
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| Authors: | CUI Tingting WANG Yintang LIU Yong WANG Zongzhi |
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| Institution: | 1(1.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineer,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China 2.College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;) |
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| Abstract: | This paper put forward the concept of typhoon impacting the Taihu Lake Basin according to the typhoon birthplace and movement path,affected area,and rainfall characteristics,using 230 typhoons impacting the Taihu Lake Basin from the yearbooks of China Meteorological Administration Tropical Cyclone(1949-2010).Using the methods of non-parametric statistics,residual mass curves and Morlet continuous wavelet analysis,the frequency of typhoons affecting the Taihu Lake Basin,earliest and latest impacting time during a year,discontinuity points and cyclicity were analyzed,the relationship between typhoon and ENSO was also analyzed.The results show that there is no significant change trend in frequency of typhoons impacting the Taihu Lake Basin and latest impacting time,and the latest impact time has a significant postponing trend |
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| Keywords: | Taihu Lake Basin typhoon evolution law ENSO |
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