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| 改进的有序聚类分析法提取时间序列转折点 | |
| 引用本文： | 陈远中,陆宝宏,张育德,周笑笑.改进的有序聚类分析法提取时间序列转折点[J].水文,2011,31(1):41-44. |
| 作者姓名： | 陈远中 陆宝宏 张育德 周笑笑 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 深圳市水务工程建设管理中心,广东,深圳,518048 2. 河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏,南京,210098;水文水资源及水利工程国家重点实验室,江苏,南京,210098 3. 河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏,南京,210098 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(NSFC50379008,NSFC50979023) |
| 摘 要： | 对有序聚类分析法进行改进,使其更加适用于序列转折点或突变点的提取。分别将传统和改进的有序聚类方法应用在长江下游区域年平均气温系列的转折点提取中,对两种方法提取的结果与滑动平均的结果进行比较,发现改进的方法更接近于实际。对提取点分别采用秩和检验法、游程检验法进行检验,均通过了α=0.05的置信度检验,改进后的置信度比改进前更高。 |
| 关 键 词： | 有序类聚 转折点 时间序列 显著性检验 |
Improvement of Sequential Cluster Analysis Method for Extracting Turning Point of Time Series |
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| CHEN Yuanzhong,LU Baohong,ZHANG Yude,ZHOU Xiaoxiao.Improvement of Sequential Cluster Analysis Method for Extracting Turning Point of Time Series[J].Hydrology,2011,31(1):41-44. | |
| Authors: | CHEN Yuanzhong LU Baohong ZHANG Yude ZHOU Xiaoxiao |
| Institution: | CHEN Yuanzhong1,LU Baohong2,3,ZHANG Yude2,ZHOU Xiaoxiao2(1.Shenzhen Water Engineering Construction Management Center,Shenzhen 518048,China,2.College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,3.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,China) |
| Abstract: | Because the sequential cluster analysis method can not deal with turning point with change trend.In order to overcome the shortcomings and obtain more accurate turning points for a time series with changed trend,the conventional sequential cluster analysis approach was improved.The modified method was used to extract the turning point of annual average temperature time series of a sub-basin in Yangtze River Basin.By comparing the performance between the modified and conventional approaches,it can be found t... |
| Keywords: | sequential cluster turning point time series confidence test |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |