| 基于GRNN模型的岩溶地区城市水生态足迹分析与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨振华,苏维词,赵卫权,谢砫军,李艳丽.基于GRNN模型的岩溶地区城市水生态足迹分析与预测[J].中国岩溶,2016,35(1):36-42. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨振华 苏维词 赵卫权 谢砫军 李艳丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 贵州师范大学喀斯特研究院,贵州省山地资源研究所/重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院,贵州省山地资源研究所,重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院,重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 基金项目：国家“十二五”科技支撑计划项目（2012BAJ25B09） |
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| 摘 要： | 为揭示岩溶地区城市生态足迹的驱动因子与机制,评估和预测水资源可持续利用程度,根据岩溶地区水文地质特征及其与水生态足迹的相关性,分析了贵阳市2002-2014年水生态足迹的变化特征,并利用GRNN模型对其进行了时间序列预测。结果表明,贵阳市水生态足迹由2002年的12.79万hm2上升至2014年的15.74万hm2,整体呈波动上升趋势,其中,水量生态足迹变化特征主要由工业用水量决定,水质生态足迹变化特征主要由氨氮排放量决定。水生态承载力波动变化明显,且小于水生态足迹需水量,导致水资源可持续利用系数介于0.31~0.63之间。对贵阳市2015-2019年水生态足迹进行GRNN预测,表明水生态足迹呈现先升后降得趋势,水生态承载力变幅在4.315~8.038万hm2之间,但水生态足迹与承载力的缺口大,水资源可持续利用系数偏低。因此,在水生态承载力有限的贵阳市,降低水生态足迹才是实现水资源可持续利用的关键。
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| 关 键 词： | GRNN模型 岩溶 水生态足迹 预测 |
Analysis and forecast of water ecological footprint in karst area based on GRNN model |
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| YANG Zhen-hu,SU Wei-ci,ZHAO Wei-quan,XIE Zhu-jun and LI Yan-li.Analysis and forecast of water ecological footprint in karst area based on GRNN model[J].Carsologica Sinica,2016,35(1):36-42. |
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| Authors: | YANG Zhen-hu SU Wei-ci ZHAO Wei-quan XIE Zhu-jun and LI Yan-li |
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| Abstract: | In order to reveal the driving factors and mechanism of urban ecological footprint, evaluating and predicting the degree of sustainable utilization of water resources in karst area, the change characteristics of water ecological footprint in Guiyang City from 2002 to 2014 were analyzed, according to the hydrogeological features in karst area and its correlation with the water ecological footprint, and the GRNN model was used to predict and evaluate the water ecological footprint time series. The results showed that the water ecological footprint of Guiyang city rose from 12.79 Mhm2 in 2002 to 15.74 Mhm2 in 2014, of which the variety of water volume ecological footprint was determined by the industrial water consumption, water quality ecological footprint change was determined by the ammonia emissions. The fluctuation of the water ecological carrying capacity was obvious, and the water demand was less than the water ecological footprint, which led to the coefficient of sustainable utilization of water resources was between 0.34 and 0.61. The water ecological footprint from 2015 to 2019 in Guiyang city is predicted by the GRNN model, which show that the trend of water ecological footprint first increase and then decrease, and the water ecological carrying capacity ranged from 4.315 Mhm2 to 8.038 Mhm2. But the gap between the water ecological footprint and the carrying capacity is huge; the water resources sustainable utilization coefficient is low. Therefore, the reduction of the water ecological footprint is the key to sustainable development of the water resources in Guiyang city, of which the water ecological carrying capacity is limited in karst area. |
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| Keywords: | GRNN karst water ecological footprint forecast |
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