| 近百年来贵州高原气温时空演变特征及趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡泽银,王世杰,白晓永,李琴,吴路华,陈飞,杨钰杰,田诗琪,邓元红,李朝君.近百年来贵州高原气温时空演变特征及趋势[J].中国岩溶,2020,39(5):724-736. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡泽银 王世杰 白晓永 李琴 吴路华 陈飞 杨钰杰 田诗琪 邓元红 李朝君 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院地球化学研究所环境地球化学国家重点实验室/中国科学院大学/中国科学院普定喀斯特生态系统观测研究站 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（XDA23060100&No.XDB40000000）;国家重点研发计划（2016YFC0502300& 2016YFC0502102）;西部之光人才计划（A类）（〔2018〕99号）;喀斯特中心联合基金（U1612441）;贵州省科技计划（2017-2966） |
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| 摘 要： | 在全球气候变暖背景下，气温变化具有显著的地域差异，认识区域气温变化特征，对于生态安全和可持续发展是非常重要的。本文基于CRU、MODIS遥感数据以及气象站观测数据，使用累积距平、一元线性回归、5a滑动平均、线性倾向率、R/S分析等方法，揭示了贵州高原气温的时空演变特征及对生态安全的影响。结果表明:（1）在空间上，贵州高原气温时空演变历史过程具有地域差异性和季节性，总体呈南高北低的空间分布格局，春季和冬季气温空间分布特征比较相似，夏季与春季、冬季特征近似相反，秋季空间分布不明显，主要受到海拔和纬度的影响；（2）1901以来，气温呈现出以-0.31 ℃/century的速率波动下降趋势，且以秋季为主；（3）1951年以来，气温呈现出以0.71 ℃/century的速率波动上升趋势，且以秋季为主；（4）2000年以来，气温呈现出以-5.43 ℃/century的速率波动下降趋势，且以冬季为主，具有一定的年际性和季节性。综上所述，贵州高原气温呈现下降趋势，且主要受到海拔和纬度的双重影响。本研究结果为研究区合理利用气候资源、区域产业结构调整、生态环境保护工程等提供决策支撑。
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| 关 键 词： | 贵州高原 气温变化 时空演变 趋势分析 生态安全 |
Analysis of spatial-temporal evolution and trend of the air temperature over Guizhou plateau in the last hundred years |
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| HU Zeyin,WANG Shijie,BAI Xiaoyong,LI Qin,WU Luhu,CHEN Fei,YANG Yujie,TIAN Shiqi,DENG Yuanhong,LI Chaojun.Analysis of spatial-temporal evolution and trend of the air temperature over Guizhou plateau in the last hundred years[J].Carsologica Sinica,2020,39(5):724-736. |
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| Authors: | HU Zeyin WANG Shijie BAI Xiaoyong LI Qin WU Luhu CHEN Fei YANG Yujie TIAN Shiqi DENG Yuanhong LI Chaojun |
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| Abstract: | Under the background of global warming，there are significant regional differences in temperature change. It is very important for ecological security and sustainable development to recognize the characteristics of regional temperature changes. This work builds on CRU，MODIS remote sensing data and observational data from meterological stations. Using trend analysis，cumulative anomalies，one-dimensional linear regression，5 a sliding average，linear trend rate，and R/S analysis, we examine the spatial-temporal evolution of the air temperature in the Guizhou Plateau and its impact on ecological security. The results show that， (1) spatially,the spatial-temporal evolution process of temperature in the Guizhou plateau has regional and seasonal characteristics. Overall spatial air temperature was high in the south and low in the north. Spatial distributions of temperature in the spring and winter were similar, approximately opposite in summer and spring，and not obvious in autumn, mainly affected by elevations and latitudes； (2) Since 1901，the air temperature declined at a rate of -0.31 ℃/century with fluctuations，especially in autumn；（3）Since 1951，it rose up at a rate of 0.71 ℃ /century mainly in autumn；（4）Since 2000，the temperature has been decreasing at a rate of -5.43 °C/century,and it is mainly in winter, showing a certain interannual and seasonal charatceristics. In summary，the temperature in the Guizhou plateau shows a downward trend，impacted by elevations and latitudes. In this context, relevant countermeasures are proposed to provide decision-making support for the rational use of climate resources,regional industrial restructuring，and environmental protection projects in the study area. |
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