| 东南沿海台风暴雨型单体斜坡灾害风险评价——以泰顺仕阳北坡为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 韩帅,刘明军,伍剑波,张帅,孙强,张泰丽.东南沿海台风暴雨型单体斜坡灾害风险评价——以泰顺仕阳北坡为例[J].地质力学学报,2022,28(4):583-595. |
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| 作者姓名： | 韩帅 刘明军 伍剑波 张帅 孙强 张泰丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国地质调查局南京地质调查中心, 江苏 南京 210016 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地质调查地质调查项目DD20190648中国地质调查地质调查项目DD20221742 |
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| 摘 要： | 在东南沿海地区每年汛期由台风暴雨诱发的坡积层滑坡灾害事故众多，给当地人民生命财产安全造成巨大威胁。斜坡单体风险评价是地质灾害治理与防控的重点、难点。在野外调查、工程地质钻探及岩土体力学测试的基础上，以仕阳镇仕阳北坡为例，结合气象资料分析了不同降雨条件下斜坡的稳定性；采用蒙特卡洛方法计算了斜坡安全系数的统计特性；基于斜坡破坏概率研究了承灾体的易损性，并定量计算了不同降雨条件下建筑物及人员的风险值。结果表明:随着降雨强度的增加，滑坡发生概率随之增加，其风险值也逐渐增加，特大暴雨工况风险最大，其人员风险为94人/年，经济风险为1.41亿元/年。研究结果对东南沿海地区该类滑坡的防治工程有重要的参考意义，可为该类滑坡的防灾减灾决策提供建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 斜坡 风险评价 易损性 稳定性 台风暴雨 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-12-09 |
Risk assessment of slope disasters induced by typhoon-rainfall in the southeast coastal area,China: A case study of the Shiyang north slope |
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| Institution: | 1.Nanjing Geological Center, China Geological Survey, Nanjing 210016, Jiangsu, China2.Key Laboratory of Watershed Eco-Geological Processes, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210016, Jiangsu, China3.Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, Hubei, China4.Natural Resources and Planning Bureau of Taishun County, Wenzhou 325000, Zhejiang, China5.Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | In the southeast coastal areas of China, typhoon-rainfall-induced landslide disasters occur frequently during the flood season each year, which poses a great threat to local people's lives and property. The risk assessment of individual slopes is of great importance for geologic disaster management and prevention. We carried out field surveys, engineering geological drilling, and soil mechanics tests on the north slope of Shiyang Town. The slope stability was discussed in combination with the meteorological data under different rainfall conditions. By using the Monte Carlo method the statistical characteristics of the slope safety factor were calculated. Based on the slope failure probability, the vulnerability of the hazard-bearing body was analyzed, and the risk values for buildings and people under different rainfall conditions were quantitatively calculated. The results show that with the increase in rainfall intensity, the probability of landslide increases, and its risk value increases as well. The risk under extremely heavy rain is the highest, with 94 people per year, and the economic risk is 141 million yuan per year. The research results are a useful guideline for the prevention and control of this type of landslide in the southeast coastal area. |
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